With the Fed taking a pass on hiking rates in September, a reduction in their 2016 and 2017 growth forecasts, and only minimal dissension within their ranks against a steady policy stance, it appears that they are not confident enough in the pace of US growth to make a move at this time.
Lean Hogs
This Week’s Economic Outlook
Once again it appears that deflationary sentiment has reached an excess level with respect to physical commodity pricing.
Global Recovery On the Horizon
We think that a September US rate hike is off the table because of a lack of definitive forward progression in the US jobs sector. The unending Greek saga combined with a rising Dollar has created enough headwinds to keep the Fed on the sidelines until later in the year.
Persistent Improvement in Global Economic Sentiment
As we indicated last week, outside market forces appear to be reaching a zenith, and with the noted letdown in the dollar in June, the hope of sidestepping a financial debacle in Europe, and the promise of ongoing aggressive QE from the ECB, it would not be surprising to see a persistent improvement in global economic sentiment.
Macroeconomic Conditions Improving; Return to Growth
Macroeconomic conditions are improving, and the Fed Chairman feels confident enough to weigh in with her own “irrational exuberance” moment with respect to equity valuations.
Negative Psychology From First Quarter to Remain
While US economic activity appears to have faltered a bit, evidence of recovery in the Euro zone is starting to surface.
Global Economic Condition Remains Suspect
From the recent action in Treasuries, stocks and physical commodities, one could come to the conclusion that the global economic condition remains suspect.
2015 Commodity Demand Outlook is Better Than You Think
The events in the second half of 2014 will do more to stimulate the global economy than all the central bank and governmental efforts combined.
Aggressive Economic Assistance
What have we learned in the month of October? We have learned once again that free markets work and that market forces, given time, will provide a cure.
New Fears of a Return to Recession
Just when it seemed like global economic sentiment was showing signs of improving (or at least stop getting worse), it was dealt a blow with new fears of a return to recession in the Euro zone.