With the US payroll report surprising the trade with better than expected results for the month of July, new highs in US equities and anecdotal evidence of a possible bottoming in the Chinese economy (positive Alibaba earnings and a rise in iron ore and copper imports), it would seem like the groundwork has been laid for an improvement in “animal spirits.”
Lean Hogs
Developing Pattern of Weakness in Energy Pricing Weighing in On Commodities
The early July COT spec and fund net long position reading in 20 non-financial commodities, combined with ongoing strength in the US Dollar and favorable US grain production weather, leaves the path of least resistance in most markets pointing to the downside.
The Level of Big-Picture Macroeconomic Uncertainty Is On the Decline
Death and Pestilence off of Brexit has failed to surface so far!
How Will Commodities in the Summer of 2016 Be Defined?
Since the March lows, several physical commodities have forged rallies that few expected, and with even fewer anticipating the magnitude of those rallies.
Technical Ag Knowledge
This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday May 23, 2016. **Crop progress numbers will be released today @ 3PM (CST).** Ag Markets Jul ’16 Corn Corn is starting to look a little tired here at the top of the range and may need some fresh fundamental news… Read more.
Forward Progress in the US Economy Has Disappointed
The “talking heads” and “talking fund managers” are suggesting that the rally in commodities is done, unjustified and poised to be reversed.
Growth in the Rest of the World Showing Signs of Improvement
Just when it appeared that commodities were settling back on a deflationary track, leadership surfaced in fresh buying interest in gold, silver, platinum, soybeans, corn and crude oil.
The Pace of Improvement Remains Difficult to Detect
The brightening of the economic skies continues, but the pace of improvement remains difficult to detect.
The US Economy is Slowly Progressing
Just as US scheduled data has continued to be mixed, the Fed had added confusion regarding their intentions on monetary policy. The general consensus is that the US economy is slowly progressing.
Stronger Chance For a December Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike
A much better than forecast look at October US jobs data has strengthened the chances for a December Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
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