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THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE USDA. THESE VIEWS AND OPINIONS DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THOSE OF DANIELS TRADING, ITS STAFF OR ANY CONTRIBUTORS. THE ACCURACY AND VALIDITY OF THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS STATED IN THIS PIECE HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFIED.
| Metric | 2016/17 |
2017/18 Est. |
2018/19 Proj. November |
2018/19 Proj. December |
Change** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. | |||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 94.0 | 90.2 | 89.1 | 89.1 | 0 |
| Area Harvested | 86.7 | 82.7 | 81.8 | 81.8 | 0 |
| Metric Tons | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 174.6 | 176.6 | 178.9 | 178.9 | 0 |
| Million Metric Tons | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 1,737 | 2,293 | 2,140 | 2,140 | 0 |
| Production | 15,148 | 14,604 | 14,626 | 14,626 | 0 |
| Imports | 57 | 36 | 50 | 45 | -5 |
| Supply, Total | 16,942 | 16,934 | 16,816 | 16,811 | -5 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,470 | 5,298 | 5,500 | 5,500 | 0 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ | 6,885 | 7,058 | 7,130 | 7,080 | -50 |
| Ethanol & by-products 3/ | 5,432 | 5,605 | 5,650 | 5,600 | -50 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,355 | 12,355 | 12,630 | 12,580 | -50 |
| Exports | 2,294 | 2,438 | 2,450 | 2,450 | 0 |
| Use, Total | 14,649 | 14,793 | 15,080 | 15,030 | -50 |
| Ending Stocks | 2,293 | 2,140 | 1,736 | 1,781 | 45 |
| Stocks to Use *** | 15.65 | 14.47 | 11.51 | 11.85 | 0.34 |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.20 - 4.00 | 3.25 - 3.95 | 0 |
| Metric | 2016/17 |
2017/18 Est. |
2018/19 Proj. Nov |
2018/19 Proj. Dec |
Change** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects only biodiesel made from methyl ester as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 2,079 million bushels for 2017/18 and 2,080 million bushels for 2018/19. | |||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 83.4 | 90.1 | 89.1 | 89.1 | 0 |
| Area Harvested | 82.7 | 89.5 | 88.3 | 88.3 | 0 |
| Bushels | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 52.0 | 49.3 | 52.1 | 52.1 | 0 |
| Million Bushels | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 197 | 302 | 438 | 438 | 0 |
| Production | 4,296 | 4,411 | 4,600 | 4,600 | 0 |
| Imports | 22 | 22 | 25 | 25 | 0 |
| Supply, Total | 4,515 | 4,734 | 5,063 | 5,063 | 0 |
| Crushings | 1,901 | 2,055 | 2,080 | 2,080 | 0 |
| Exports | 2,166 | 2,129 | 1,900 | 1,900 | 0 |
| Seed | 105 | 104 | 96 | 96 | 0 |
| Residual | 41 | 8 | 32 | 32 | 0 |
| Use, Total | 4,214 | 4,296 | 4,107 | 4,107 | 0 |
| Ending Stocks | 302 | 438 | 955 | 955 | 0 |
| Stocks to Use *** | 7.17 | 10.2 | 23.25 | 23.25 | 0 |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | 9.47 | 9.33 | 7.60 - 9.60 | 7.85 - 9.35 | 0.3 |
| Metric | 2016/17 |
2017/18 Est. |
2018/19 Proj. Nov |
2018/19 Proj. Dec |
Change** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. | |||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 50.1 | 46.0 | 47.8 | 47.8 | 0 |
| Area Harvested | 43.9 | 37.5 | 39.6 | 39.6 | 0 |
| Bushels | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 52.7 | 46.3 | 47.6 | 47.6 | 0 |
| Million Bushels | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 976 | 1,181 | 1,099 | 1,099 | 0 |
| Production | 2,309 | 1,740 | 1,884 | 1,884 | 0 |
| Imports | 118 | 157 | 140 | 140 | 0 |
| Supply, Total | 3,402 | 3,078 | 3,123 | 3,123 | 0 |
| Food | 949 | 964 | 970 | 970 | 0 |
| Seed | 61 | 63 | 69 | 69 | 0 |
| Feed and Residual | 161 | 50 | 110 | 110 | 0 |
| Domestic, Total | 1,171 | 1,078 | 1,149 | 1,149 | 0 |
| Exports | 1,051 | 901 | 1,025 | 1,000 | -25 |
| Use, Total | 2,222 | 1,979 | 2,174 | 2,149 | -25 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,181 | 1,099 | 949 | 974 | 25 |
| Stocks to Use *** | 53.15 | 55.53 | 43.65 | 45.32 | 1.67 |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | 3.89 | 4.72 | 4.90 - 5.30 | 5.05 - 5.25 | 0.1 |
| Crop | USDA Dec | USDA Nov | Change** |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 340.20 | 340.92 | -0.72 |
| Soybeans | 101.30 | 99.69 | 1.61 |
| Wheat | 279.94 | 279.00 | 0.94 |
| Crop | USDA Dec | USDA Nov | Change** |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 308.80 | 307.51 | 1.29 |
| Soybeans | 115.33 | 112.08 | 3.25 |
| Wheat | 268.10 | 266.71 | 1.39 |
| Country | Crop | Production |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Corn | 42.50 |
| Soybeans | 55.50 | |
| Brazil | Corn | 94.50 |
| Soybeans | 122.00 |
All information is sourced from The United States Department of Agriculture’s USDA.gov website.
** The "Change" column is calculated by subtracting the previous month’s projections from the current month’s projections.
*** The "Stocks to Use" row is calculated by dividing "Ending Stocks" by "Use, Total".
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