WASDE Report Analysis

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THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE USDA. THESE VIEWS AND OPINIONS DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THOSE OF DANIELS TRADING, ITS STAFF OR ANY CONTRIBUTORS. THE ACCURACY AND VALIDITY OF THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS STATED IN THIS PIECE HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFIED.

WASDE - 580 - 12 | U.S. Corn Supply and Use 1/ (August 2018)

Metric	2016/17	2017/18 Est.	2018/19 Proj. July	2018/19 Proj. August	Change**
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July, planted acres reported in the June 29, 2018, "Acreage." The corn yield projection is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2017 time period, and includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the asymmetric response of yield to July precipitation. (For an explanation of the yield trend model see Westcott and Jewison, Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields, USDA-ERS, Feed Outlook No. (FDS-13G-01), July 2013, www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/fds13g01/39297_fds-13g-01.pdf?v=41481.)
	Million Acres
Area Planted	94.0	90.2	89.1 *	89.1	0
Area Harvested	86.7	82.7	81.8 *	81.8	0
	Metric Tons
Yield per Harvested Acre	174.6	176.6	174.0 *	178.4	4.4
	Million Metric Tons
Beginning Stocks	1,737	2,293	2,027	2,027	0
Production	15,148	14,604	14,230	14,586	356
Imports	57	40	50	50	0
Supply, Total	16,942	16,937	16,307	16,664	357
Feed and Residual	5,470	5,450	5,425	5,525	100
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/	6,885	7,060	7,105	7,105	0
Ethanol & by-products 3/	5,432	5,600	5,625	5,625	0
Domestic, Total	12,355	12,510	12,530	12,630	100
Exports	2,294	2,400	2,225	2,350	125
Use, Total	14,649	14,910	14,755	14,980	225
Ending Stocks	2,293	2,027	1,552	1,684	132
Stocks to Use ***	15.65	13.59	10.52	11.24	0.72
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/	3.36	3.35 - 3.45	3.30 - 4.30	3.10 - 4.10	-0.2

WASDE - 580 - 15 | U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ (August 2018)

Metric	2016/17	2017/18 Est.	2018/19 Proj. Jul	2018/19 Proj. Aug	Change**
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects only biodiesel made from methyl ester as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 2,050 million bushels for 2017/18 and 2,060 million bushels for 2018/19. *Planted and harvested acres are from the June 29, 2018 Acreage report. The yield is based on a weather-adjusted trend model.
	Million Acres
Area Planted	83.4	90.1	89.6 *	89.6	0
Area Harvested	82.7	89.5	88.9 *	88.9	0
	Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre	52.0	49.1	48.5 *	51.6	3.1
	Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks	197	302	465	430	-35
Production	4,296	4,392	4,310	4,586	276
Imports	22	22	25	25	0
Supply, Total	4,515	4,715	4,800	5,040	240
Crushings	1,901	2,040	2,045	2,060	15
Exports	2,166	2,110	2,040	2,060	20
Seed	105	104	103	103	0
Residual	41	32	32	33	1
Use, Total	4,214	4,286	4,220	4,256	36
Ending Stocks	302	430	580	785	205
Stocks to Use ***	7.17	10.03	13.74	18.44	4.7
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/	9.47	9.35	8.00 - 10.50	7.65 - 10.15	-0.4

WASDE - 580 - 11 | U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (August 2018)

Metric	2016/17	2017/18 Est.	2018/19 Proj. Jul	2018/19 Proj. Aug	Change**
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports.
	Million Acres
Area Planted	50.1	46.0	47.8	47.8	0
Area Harvested	43.9	37.6	39.6	39.6	0
	Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre	52.7	46.3	47.5	47.4	-0.1
	Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks	976	1,181	1,100	1,100	0
Production	2,309	1,741	1,881	1,877	-4
Imports	118	157	135	135	0
Supply, Total	3,402	3,079	3,117	3,112	-5
Food	949	964	965	970	5
Seed	61	64	62	62	0
Feed and Residual	161	48	130	120	-10
Domestic, Total	1,171	1,077	1,157	1,152	-5
Exports	1,051	901	975	1,025	50
Use, Total	2,222	1,978	2,132	2,177	45
Ending Stocks	1,181	1,100	985	935	-50
Stocks to Use ***	53.15	55.61	46.2	42.95	-3.25
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/	3.89	4.73	4.50 - 5.50	4.60 - 5.60	0.1

World Ending Stocks ( 2017/18 Est. )

Crop	USDA Aug	USDA Jul	Change**
Corn	193.33	191.73	1.6
Soybeans	95.61	96.02	-0.41
Wheat	273.07	273.50	-0.43

World Ending Stocks ( 2018/19 Proj. )

Crop	USDA Aug	USDA Jul	Change**
Corn	155.49	151.96	3.53
Soybeans	105.94	98.27	7.67
Wheat	258.96	260.88	-1.92

South American Production ( 2018/19 Proj. )

Country	Crop	Production
Argentina	Corn	41.00
	Soybeans	57.00
Brazil	Corn	94.50
	Soybeans	120.50

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