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THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE USDA. THESE VIEWS AND OPINIONS DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THOSE OF DANIELS TRADING, ITS STAFF OR ANY CONTRIBUTORS. THE ACCURACY AND VALIDITY OF THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS STATED IN THIS PIECE HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFIED.
| Metric | 2016/17 |
2017/18 Est. |
2018/19 Proj. May |
2018/19 Proj. June |
Change** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the March 29, 2018, "Prospective Plantings." For corn, harvested acres projected based on historical abandonment and use for silage. The yield projection is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2017 time period, and includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the asymmetric response of yield to July precipitation. (For an explanation of the yield trend model see Westcott and Jewison, Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields, USDA-ERS, Feed Outlook No. (FDS-13G-01), July 2013, https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=36652.) | |||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 94.0 | 90.2 | 88.0 * | 88.0 * | 0 |
| Area Harvested | 86.7 | 82.7 | 80.7 * | 80.7 * | 0 |
| Metric Tons | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 174.6 | 176.6 | 174.0 * | 174.0 * | 0 |
| Million Metric Tons | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 1,737 | 2,293 | 2,182 | 2,102 | -80 |
| Production | 15,148 | 14,604 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 0 |
| Imports | 57 | 45 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
| Supply, Total | 16,942 | 16,942 | 16,272 | 16,192 | -80 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,472 | 5,500 | 5,375 | 5,350 | -25 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ | 6,883 | 7,040 | 7,115 | 7,165 | 50 |
| Ethanol & by-products 3/ | 5,432 | 5,575 | 5,625 | 5,675 | 50 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,356 | 12,540 | 12,490 | 12,515 | 25 |
| Exports | 2,293 | 2,300 | 2,100 | 2,100 | 0 |
| Use, Total | 14,649 | 14,840 | 14,590 | 14,615 | 25 |
| Ending Stocks | 2,293 | 2,102 | 1,682 | 1,577 | -105 |
| Stocks to Use *** | 15.65 | 14.16 | 11.53 | 10.79 | -0.74 |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ | 3.36 | 3.25 - 3.55 | 3.30 - 4.30 | 3.40 - 4.40 | 0.1 |
| Metric | 2016/17 |
2017/18 Est. |
2018/19 Proj. May |
2018/19 Proj. Jun |
Change** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects only biodiesel made from methyl ester as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 2,015 million bushels for 2017/18 and 2,000 million bushels for 2018/19. *Planted acres are reported in the March 29, 2018 Prospective Plantings report. Harvested acres are based on the 5-year planted-to-harvested ratio. The projected yield is based on a weather-adjusted trend model and assumes normal weather. | |||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 83.4 | 90.1 | 89.0 * | 89.0 * | 0 |
| Area Harvested | 82.7 | 89.5 | 88.2 * | 88.2 * | 0 |
| Bushels | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 52.0 | 49.1 | 48.5 * | 48.5 * | 0 |
| Million Bushels | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 197 | 302 | 530 | 505 | -25 |
| Production | 4,296 | 4,392 | 4,280 | 4,280 | 0 |
| Imports | 22 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 0 |
| Supply, Total | 4,515 | 4,718 | 4,835 | 4,810 | -25 |
| Crushings | 1,901 | 2,015 | 1,995 | 2,000 | 5 |
| Exports | 2,174 | 2,065 | 2,290 | 2,290 | 0 |
| Seed | 105 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 0 |
| Residual | 34 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 0 |
| Use, Total | 4,213 | 4,213 | 4,420 | 4,425 | 5 |
| Ending Stocks | 302 | 505 | 415 | 385 | -30 |
| Stocks to Use *** | 7.17 | 11.99 | 9.39 | 8.7 | -0.69 |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | 9.47 | 9.40 | 8.75 - 11.25 | 8.75 - 11.25 | 0 |
| Metric | 2016/17 |
2017/18 Est. |
2018/19 Proj. May |
2018/19 Proj. Jun |
Change** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in the March 28, 2018, "Prospective Plantings." Harvested acres and yield for other spring wheat and Durum are projected using 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios by state and 1985-2017 yield trends by state (except for Arizona, California, and Idaho Durum). For May, winter wheat harvested acres and yield reported in the May 10, 2018,"Crop Production." For June, winter wheat harvested acres and yield reported in the June 12, 2018,"Crop Production." ***************************************************************************** Wheat-by-class projections for 2018/19 will first be published in the July 12, 2018, WASDE. ***************************************************************************** |
|||||
| Million Acres | |||||
| Area Planted | 50.1 | 46.0 | 47.3 * | 47.3 * | 0 |
| Area Harvested | 43.9 | 37.6 | 38.9 * | 38.9 * | 0 |
| Bushels | |||||
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 52.7 | 46.3 | 46.8 * | 46.9 * | 0.1 |
| Million Bushels | |||||
| Beginning Stocks | 976 | 1,181 | 1,070 | 1,080 | 10 |
| Production | 2,309 | 1,741 | 1,821 | 1,827 | 6 |
| Imports | 118 | 155 | 135 | 135 | 0 |
| Supply, Total | 3,402 | 3,076 | 3,027 | 3,043 | 16 |
| Food | 949 | 963 | 965 | 965 | 0 |
| Seed | 61 | 63 | 62 | 62 | 0 |
| Feed and Residual | 156 | 70 | 120 | 120 | 0 |
| Domestic, Total | 1,167 | 1,096 | 1,147 | 1,147 | 0 |
| Exports | 1,055 | 900 | 925 | 950 | 25 |
| Use, Total | 2,222 | 1,996 | 2,072 | 2,097 | 25 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,181 | 1,080 | 955 | 946 | -9 |
| Stocks to Use *** | 53.15 | 54.11 | 46.09 | 45.11 | -0.98 |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | 3.89 | 4.75 | 4.50 - 5.50 | 4.60 - 5.60 | 0.1 |
| Crop | USDA Jun | USDA May | Change** |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 192.69 | 194.85 | -2.16 |
| Soybeans | 92.49 | 92.16 | 0.33 |
| Wheat | 272.37 | 270.46 | 1.91 |
| Crop | USDA Jun | USDA May | Change** |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 154.69 | 159.15 | -4.46 |
| Soybeans | 87.02 | 86.70 | 0.32 |
| Wheat | 266.16 | 264.33 | 1.83 |
| Country | Crop | Production |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | Corn | 41.00 |
| Soybeans | 56.00 | |
| Brazil | Corn | 96.00 |
| Soybeans | 118.00 |
All information is sourced from The United States Department of Agriculture’s USDA.gov website.
** The "Change" column is calculated by subtracting the previous month’s projections from the current month’s projections.
*** The "Stocks to Use" row is calculated by dividing "Ending Stocks" by "Use, Total".
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