In retrospect, the recent sharp declines in equity prices and significant pressure on industrial commodities were justified by disappointing US scheduled data and the Fed’s move to notch interest rates upward.
Lean Hogs
Potential For a June Rate Hike Rekindles
Despite the very disappointing US nonfarm payroll report for the month of May, the US and global economies continue to recover, albeit at a slow pace.
Mixed US Numbers Downplays Prospect of June US Rate Hike
While the markets always present a wide range of potentially impactful issues, the current list seems to be unusually broad.
Global Recovery Fighting a Number of Headwinds
We hope that the Fed isn’t wrong about the recovery continuing, and we hope that the weak US data is a temporary trend and that the US economy is merely taking a pause.
World Economy Progressing, Improving Outlook for Commodities
The most important developments of last week were 1) indications that world oil producers were poised to extend production cuts (or even expand them if it becomes necessary to reduce global oil stocks to five year average levels) and 2) percolating fears of bird flu in Asia.
Plenty of Positives for Physical Commodities
Just when it appeared that the reflation play was being reversed, the new US Administration managed to return its focus to pro-growth policy initiatives.
Economic, Political Uncertainty On the Rise; Forward Commodity Demand in Question
US economic data continues to be disappointing, Trump and the GOP are trying to do everything at once, and they appear to be putting off tackling fiscal spending and tax reform in favor of wading into the quagmire of health care reform.
Outlook for the Global Economy and Commodity Markets Continues to Improve
The outlook for the global economy and commodity markets in general continues to improve, but some might fret over the looming FOMC rate decision, while others might be concerned over the prospect of a firming dollar in the event the Fed does make a move to hike rates.
Shift in Economic Sentiment From the US
While the hype and equity market euphoria from the election has started to moderate, a shift in economic sentiment from inside and outside the US was already in motion, and that could allow for a “risk on” vibe until the markets get closer to the mid-December FOMC meeting.
Dollar Moves Higher; Oversupply For Soybeans
A strengthening US dollar and uncertainties in global stock markets have helped to drive some commodity markets lower over the past few weeks, and the possible appearance of a double top in crude oil has many macro-fund traders getting concerned about the outlook ahead.