The recent market action appears to have been a capitulation event that has exaggerated global slowing fears.
Crude Oil
Is the US Economic Recovery Faltering?
In retrospect, the sharp slide in physical commodity prices was well deserved, what with global macroeconomic sentiment eroding in the wake of signs of lost momentum in the US recovery, threats of additional sanctions against Russia, and perhaps most importantly, a soaring US Dollar.
A Trade Setup for Taylor Trading Technique Sell Days
Of the three days in the Taylor Trading Technique cycle, I often don’t look to trade markets that are on the Sell day, as Sell days don’t have the clear directional bias of a Buy or a Sell Short day. However, there are some setups that can yield good trades on Sell days.
Trend in Chinese Economy Impacting Physical Commodity Markets
The track of the US economy is important, but seeing a trend of better economic news from China is probably more important to physical commodity markets.
Improving US Economy Looks to Be a Negative For Commodity Prices
Macroeconomic recovery prospects were improved by the actions of the ECB last week, even if the action was months and perhaps years late in coming.
Global Economic Progress is Faltering
Global economic progress is apparently faltering, and noted fund managers are warning against having “too much equity market exposure.”
The Outlook for the Global Economy Not Impressive
Going into the end of April, the economic outlook for the Chinese economy is “unchanged”, the outlook for the US is only minimally improved, and the outlook for the Euro zone is better than most expectations.
Market Spotlight: Crude Oil
Perhaps the most controversial debate of our age is the amount of oil we have left to pump from the earth. Some speculate as many as hundreds of years, while others say we may experience an output shortage as early as 2015.
Chinese Commodity Price Trends; Overblown Concerns
Make no mistake: The ebb and flow of Chinese physical commodity demand remain paramount to commodity price trends! Clearly Chinese growth has slowed, and clearly there has been an added fear of credit turmoil inside of China with their recent bond failure.
Is the US Economy Slipping Back?
While Treasury and gold prices seem to think that the US economy is slipping back into a slow or no-growth posture, the odds are good that economic activity was merely crimped by one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record.