• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
Daniels Trading

Independent. Objective. Reliable.

Top Navigation

  • Open a Futures Account
  • Sign Up
  • Log in
  • 1.800.800.3840

Primary Navigation Menu

  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Services
    • Careers
    • Risk Disclosure
    • COVID-19
  • Trade
    • Broker-Assisted
    • Self-Directed / Online
    • Request Pricing
  • Hedge
    • DanielsAg Mobile App
    • Ag Marketing Plan
    • WASDE Analysis
    • Grain Resources
    • Livestock / Dairy Resources
    • Hedging Videos
    • Request Pricing
  • Invest
    • Automated Strategies
    • Managed Futures
    • Request Pricing
  • Advisories
    • GENERAL / FUNDAMENTAL
      • DT Newsletter
      • Insider Market Advisory
      • Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
    • TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
      • The Cullen Outlook
      • Data Feed Trade
      • Jarboe Trading Journal
      • Trade Spotlight
    • AG MARKETING
      • Cattleman’s Advisory
      • The Swine Times
      • Technical Ag Knowledge
      • This Week in Grain
      • Turner’s Take Ag Marketing
    • THIRD-PARTY RESOURCES
      • CFRN
      • Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI)
      • OptionWorks®
      • TASMarketProfile.com
  • Education
    • CME Group Resource Center
    • Small Exchange Resources
    • Guides
    • Frequently Asked Questions
    • Order Entry Handbook
    • Webinars
  • Blog
    • Futures 101
    • Ag Marketing
    • Tips & Strategies
    • Trading Advisories
  • Resources
    • Trading Software
    • Quotes and Charts
    • Futures Calendars
    • Contract Specifications
    • Margin Requirements
    • Futures Calculator
  • Accounts
    • GAIN Capital Futures
    • StoneX
  • Contact
Home / Futures Blog / November 1- Breakout Trade in EMini SP Futures

November 1- Breakout Trade in EMini SP Futures

November 1, 2016 by Scott Hoffman

Stock index futures had a breakout setup today. The EMini S&P, NASDAQ, Dow and Russell all had inside days on Monday, and the NASDAQ and Russell had narrow range days as well. The breakout setup told us to look for a strong move in one direction today, and we would look for a trade to take advantage of this.

For me, today was a reminder to not overthink trading. As today was day one of an FOMC meeting, I assumed the odds of a breakout move were lower than normal, as is often the case in the session before their announcement. In hindsight, given that the Fed is expected to not move ahead of the Presidential election, the Fed meeting wasn’t the caution signal it normally is.

esz-daily-nov-1

On a day with a breakout setup we look for a market to move beyond nearby support or resistance, and that move serves as a springboard to a larger move in that direction as the market develops a feedback loop (the farther it moves from an equilibrium point, the more it squeezes out traders on the wrong side and attracts new participants to the side of the breakout.)

The standard prices I almost always watch are the previous day high and low, and this was the case with the EMini S&P today. In this case, however, it might make sense to use Friday’s low of 2112.50 as the downside reference price, as the two lows were so close.

The 8:30 AM open was 2125.00, a little higher than the Monday close and actually closer to the previous day high than low. There was selling pressure right off the open; it broke below the overnight low quickly, and first broke below Monday’s low around 9:30 AM.

esz-intraday-nov-1

The first break of the Friday low came around 10 AM, and after making a couple of higher lows, it decisively broke below Friday’s low just before 11 AM. A breakout sale entry could have been taken anywhere in this timeframe. The initial stop loss could go above the 10 AM high- note how the 20 bar EMA (green trend line) contained the market during the decline.

The decline gained momentum late morning, dropping below the 12 Sept. low of 2100.25 (and the psychological 2100 level) around 12:40 PM. By 1:30 PM it started working back above 2100, and is around 2106 as I finish this up. Once again we will be able to watch the 2100 area as a pivot point to discern the longer term trend.

Swing Trader's Insight Essential Reference Guide Cover

Essential Guide for Futures Swing Trading

In this guide, experienced trader and broker Scott Hoffman explains the trading methods he uses to analyze and trade the futures markets and to publish his trade advisory, Swing Trader’s Insight.

Register Now

Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

Filed Under: Swing Trader's Insight

About Scott Hoffman

Scott graduated from the University of Chicago in 1986 with a degree in Economics. After graduation, Scott worked on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange then moved upstairs, serving as the personal broker to a former chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade. There, he worked as a broker and margin manager, starting up the firm’s full service brokerage division.

Today, Scott serves as an educator and mentor for new traders, and as a trading partner and ally for experienced traders. The breadth and depth of Scott’s knowledge make him the “go to guy” for both retail and institutional traders.

Scott also publishes two futures advisories, Swing Trader’s Insight and Trade or Fade. He also writes the futures trading blog at www.futuresinsightblog.com. Scott has written articles for a number of futures publications and has done numerous futures trading seminars, including seminars for both the CBOT and CME.

Scott offers his customers the knowledge he has gained from his more than 25 years of experience in the futures business. Scott is accepting new clients at this time.

Scott lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and three children. In his free time he enjoys coaching his children’s sports and various other athletic activities.

Primary Sidebar

Get Blog Updates

Subscribe to our blog and receive a daily email with information on market insights, trading tips & strategies.

Trustpilot

Footer

Site Navigation

  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • About Us
  • Customer Reviews
  • Contact Us
  • Futures Blog
  • Open a Futures Trading Account
  • Media Resources
  • Fund Your Account
  • Legal Notices

Contact Us

Daniels Trading
100 South Wacker Drive, Suite 1225
Chicago, IL 60606
+1.312.706.7600 Local / Int'l
+1.800.800.3840 Toll-Free
+1.312.706.7605 Fax

Connect with Us

Trustpilot

Copyright © 2021 · Daniels Trading. All rights reserved.

Risk Disclosure

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES; HOWEVER, DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT MAINTAIN A RESEARCH DEPARTMENT AS DEFINED IN CFTC RULE 1.71. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AND PROFIT/LOSS CALCULATIONS MAY NOT INCLUDE COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR BROKER FOR DETAILS BASED ON YOUR TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND COMMISSION SETUP.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE "RISK DISCLOSURE" WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICE.

GLOBAL ASSET ADVISORS, LLC (“GAA”) (DBA: DANIELS TRADING, TOP THIRD AG MARKETING AND FUTURES ONLINE) IS AN INTRODUCING BROKER TO GAIN CAPITAL GROUP, LLC (GCG) A FUTURES COMMISSION MERCHANT AND RETAIL FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEALER. GAA AND GCG ARE WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARIES OF STONEX GROUP INC. (NASDAQ:SNEX) THE ULTIMATE PARENT COMPANY.

  • Risk Disclosure
  • Privacy Policy
  • California Residents Privacy Notice
  • Terms of Use
  • Back to top