This is a sample entry from Drew Rathgeber’s newsletter, The Rath Overlay, published on Friday, June 5, 2015.
This morning we have gold trading at $1,174.80 (Q5) per troy oz. holding below key support at $1,200, also another key bearish area I’ve noticed is $1,176 and we currently sit a few dollars below this. Silver is still trending lower at $16.11 (N5) per troy oz. about .50 lower than last Friday. Emini S&P unable to hold above 2100 currently trading at 2093.50 (M5) however very much still trapped in a sideways/up channel with the DOW at 17874 (M5) & Mini Russell 2000 Index at 1247.3 (M5). In the Grain sector we have Corn bouncing pretty hard off of $3.50bu (N5) now trading at $3.64bu (N5), Soybeans also bouncing off its lows trading at $9.46bu (N5) with Wheat having a fresh bullish angel cross trading at $5.26 (N5). Natural Gas trading on its lows at $ 2.63 (N5) mmBtu, then we have Crude Oil also trading lower at Friday at $57.62 (N5) also just starting to show some signs of weakness. All of these lower commodity prices have been in the wake of a neutral to weaker U.S. Dollar.
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STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.
In The Markets
Emini S&P – June (ES)
| Period | Moving Average | Price Change | Percent Change | Average Volume |
| 5-Day | 2104.90 | -12.50 | -0.59% | 1186087 |
| 20-Day | 2111.80 | +9.25 | +0.44% | 1177785 |
| 50-Day | 2095.73 | +39.75 | +1.94% | 1221692 |
| 100-Day | 2076.00 | +78.50 | +3.9% | 786585 |
| 200-Day | 2031.68 | +138.50 | +7.08% | 393535 |
| Year to Date | 2072.32 | +48.25 | +2.36% | 735268 |
Technical breakdown on the 15/40 daily charts, looking somewhat bearish, however could easily see a day time reversal.
Gold – August (GGC)
| Period | Moving Average | Price Change | Percent Change | Average Volume |
| 5-Day | 1183.4 | -16.0 | -1.34% | 118426 |
| 20-Day | 1198.3 | -9.5 | -0.8% | 68257 |
| 50-Day | 1197.8 | -25.1 | -2.09% | 30275 |
| 100-Day | 1209.9 | -61.1 | -4.95% | 16093 |
| 200-Day | 1214.3 | -126.3 | -9.71% | 8242 |
| Year to Date | 1210.1 | -12.1 | -1.02% | 15080 |
I’ve been watching this one closely, we are testing the same exact level that we were at in June of 2013, and with a descending triangle set-up which from a technical perspective a bearish set-up we have a strong support at $1,150 however my concern is we keep testing and re-testing this area and we are going into the summer months.
Corn – July (ZC)
| Period | Moving Average | Price Change | Percent Change | Average Volume |
| 5-Day | 359-5 | +13-0 | +3.7% | 140448 |
| 20-Day | 360-1 | +3-0 | +0.83% | 160155 |
| 50-Day | 371-7 | -38-4 | -9.55% | 140954 |
| 100-Day | 384-2 | -52-2 | -12.54% | 91752 |
| 200-Day | 388-4 | -35-6 | -8.93% | 52982 |
| Year to Date | 386-2 | -48-0 | -11.64% | 87052 |
Nice bounce off support at $3.48bu, still trending down overall though, and now coming up to the top of the channel for a possible short entry, with correct risk management you could make a decent short trade from $3.66bu.
Crude Oil – July (GCL)
| Period | Moving Average | Price Change | Percent Change | Average Volume |
| 5-Day | 59.35 | -2.65 | -4.39% | 281275 |
| 20-Day | 59.66 | -2.27 | -3.79% | 273045 |
| 50-Day | 58.01 | +5.64 | +10.84% | 162496 |
| 100-Day | 55.43 | +7.66 | +15.32% | 100249 |
| 200-Day | 66.11 | -33.51 | -36.76% | 52459 |
| Year to Date | 55.23 | +1.39 | +2.47% | 94551 |
As I mentioned last week, Crude oil does look very bearish, however it’s sitting on support, if you wanted to go long you could from this level without risking the boat and having correct risk management in play.
U.S. Dollar –June (DX-M)
This market has been all over the place with the Greece/Euro situation from a technical perspective has been tough to gauge; personally I’ve resorted to the weekly charts to get a better feel for support, resistance, and channels.
The Week Ahead
- 6/8 – JOLTS 10:00AM ET
- 6/10 – Petro Report 10:30AM ET
- 6/10 – Treasury Budget 2:00PM ET
- 6/11 – Jobless Claims 8:30AM ET
- 6/11 – Retail Sales 8:30AM ET
- 6/12 – PPI-FD 8:30AM ET
- 6/12 – Consumer Sentiment 10:00AM ET
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STOP ORDERS DO NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE STOP PRICE BECAUSE STOP ORDERS, IF THE PRICE IS HIT, BECOME MARKET ORDERS AND, DEPENDING ON MARKET CONDITIONS, THE ACTUAL FILL PRICE CAN BE DIFFERENT FROM THE STOP PRICE. IF A MARKET REACHED ITS DAILY PRICE FLUCTUATION LIMIT, A "LIMIT MOVE", IT MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE A STOP LOSS ORDER.
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