Given the lack of a significant negative reaction in global equity markets to the latest salvos in the US/Chinese trade battle and “goldilocks” US non-farm payroll news, it is possible that the ultimate impact of the trade problems…
Crude Oil
Is Macroeconomic Volatility to Reach Crescendo? Renewed Pressure on Commodities Still Possible
We would suggest that risk on/risk off big picture macroeconomic volatility in commodities is set to reach a crescendo despite the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Our view is that the looming July 6th tariff implementation deadline will…
US Economic Expectations Given a Boost, Rate-Hike Fears May Weigh on Commodities
Clearly the US economic growth crowd was given a significant boost by the latest US jobs readings, with the headlines trumpeting an 18-year low in unemployment and a gain of 223,000 jobs for May. This should ratchet-up US economic expectations and…
Global Data to Temper Commodity Expectations, But Cautious Optimism For Trade in Asia
The commodity markets are faced with a general downshift in global economic data, and that could serve to temper commodity demand expectations. The ebb and flow of both US/North Korean and US/Chinese flashpoints shifted negative recently, but we continue to think both situations are on the road to being solved favorably. We base this on the evidence that…
Positive, Big-Picture Developments to Impact Energy, Metals, and Grains
The commodity markets ended last week with a couple of positive, big-picture developments. The most significant is the lack of strong data and inflation measures, as this clearly undermines the dollar and tempers interest rate hike fears. While the energy complex might be poised for a temporary correction, classic fundamentals and the Middle East political situation look to leave oil prices…
Improved Expectations in Metals and Treasuries Contrasts Potential Volatility in Physical Commodities
With US scheduled data into the end of March/end of quarter coming in positive and the trade facing the March nonfarm payroll report at the end of this week, it is possible that US economic expectations will be improved and markets like Treasuries, equities, copper, silver, platinum and palladium will resume the trends in place from the end of February. However, physical commodities…
Downbeat Week Ahead for Commodities Despite Positive Data from Asia
It would appear that US scheduled economic data has returned to a choppy standing, but recent Asian data has clearly surprised on the upside. Chinese retail sales figures nearly returned to double digit percentage gains over year-ago levels, and those optimistic results were matched by strong data from Japan. Unfortunately for many physical commodities, the dollar has seemingly regained some favor, and “buy the rumor” action into the upcoming FOMC meeting might see that action extended.
Equities Markets’ Resilience has Softened Negative Vibes in Commodity Markets
While the equity markets have not completely left the confidence-shaking volatility from early February behind, their ability to maintain a good portion of their gains from the recovery bounce has calmed investors and softened the negative vibes in the commodity markets.
Optimism Toward Global Economy Despite Market Volatility
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Global Growth Patterns Indicate Strong Economy, Demand to Support Commodities
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