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Will Recent Trade Developments Spark a Revival in Optimism?
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Commodity Markets Entering Period of Transition and Bottom
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What Could Last Week’s Market Anxiety Mean for US/China Negotiations?
While the severe anxiety of last week may be rejected, the damage to investor and consumer psychology will probably remain in place until the market has logged consecutive days of calm. We hope that the crescendo of economic concern and equity market anxiety will result in…
What Does the Jobs Report Mean for the Dollar, the Fed, and Oversold Commodities?
Depending on who you talk to, the most recent US jobs report was either disappointing or very impressive. Clearly the widely-followed headline gain was very disappointing against expectations, but the massive upward revision in the previous month’s payrolls, a bigger than expected drop in the unemployment rate, a huge…
Inflation – No Longer a Long Shot
Given that the last significant inflation period was decades ago, it is not surprising that the marketplace has become convinced that a return to inflationary conditions is extremely unlikely. In the wake of the subprime debacle, many economists suggested that a return of inflation would be decades in the making. But looking at current events, it would appear that a classic prescription for such a return has…
Global Currency and Commodity Concerns Could Push Dollar Higher
On the one hand the US economy continues to plow forward, but on the other hand trade issues remain threatening, with the US/Chinese situation poised to get worse before it gets better. A US/Canadian deal, which in turn would probably be an updated version of North American Free Trade Agreement, might not have the impact of…
US Stock Market Climbs as Global Economic Threats are Discounted
The US stock market continues to climb “a wall of worry,” as less than stellar US economic data, ongoing US/China trade tensions, signs of a building global currency problem, and expectations of a US interest rate hike this month are being discounted…
Commodities Resilient to Trade Threats Despite Vulnerability to Potential Volatility
The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically,Given the ongoing gains in US equities, unrelenting strength in crude oil prices, and a lack of sustained concern over the possible derailment of the global economy by US/China trade salvos, one gets the sense that…
Trade War Threat to Leave Commodities Under Pressure
A number of industrial commodities have remained under liquidation pressure because of the worsening of US/Chinese trade relations. The takeaway from recent dialogue suggests that the US is preparing for a long-term tariff strategy with China.