With US scheduled data into the end of March/end of quarter coming in positive and the trade facing the March nonfarm payroll report at the end of this week, it is possible that US economic expectations will be improved and markets like Treasuries, equities, copper, silver, platinum and palladium will resume the trends in place from the end of February. However, physical commodities…
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Markets Showing Some Signs of Stability Amid Trade War Concerns
Following turbulent trading last Wednesday and Thursday, global markets were showing some signs of stability ahead of the weekend. While the announcement of US tariffs on Chinese goods have led to a flare-up of trade friction and dampened risk appetites, there is some potential for tensions to cool down, as businesses will have a chance to discuss many of the tariffs with the US government before they go into effect.
Downbeat Week Ahead for Commodities Despite Positive Data from Asia
It would appear that US scheduled economic data has returned to a choppy standing, but recent Asian data has clearly surprised on the upside. Chinese retail sales figures nearly returned to double digit percentage gains over year-ago levels, and those optimistic results were matched by strong data from Japan. Unfortunately for many physical commodities, the dollar has seemingly regained some favor, and “buy the rumor” action into the upcoming FOMC meeting might see that action extended.
Despite Rising Rates and Strong Dollar, “Goldilocks” Economic Data May be Needed to Avoid Lower Market Action
While the fear of a series of 2018 rate hikes has provided commodities with a double negative from a rising rates/strengthening dollar perspective, we think the path to higher rates won’t be as direct as what was priced into the market in late February. First of all, we think the excess stock market volatility from the beginning of February will serve to soften the February scheduled release data (the first of which will be the employment report on March 9th), and that could temporarily pull back the anticipated number of rate hikes.
Equities Markets’ Resilience has Softened Negative Vibes in Commodity Markets
While the equity markets have not completely left the confidence-shaking volatility from early February behind, their ability to maintain a good portion of their gains from the recovery bounce has calmed investors and softened the negative vibes in the commodity markets.
Strong Global Economies and Weak USD are Positive Forces for Commodities
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Economic Data Suggests Low at Hand for Commodities
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Global Growth Ahead, but Bullish Forecast for Commodities in 2018
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Potential for Important Low in Commodities Despite Global Equity Gains
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Optimism Toward Global Economy Despite Market Volatility
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