Global economic activity remains disappointing, but medicine in the form of another wave of central bank easing, cheaper energy prices and currency exchange windfalls for the weakest areas of the developed world are in place.
Copper
Commitment to a Return to Growth
While the pace of the world economy remains disappointing to most commodity markets, a long list of central banks are exhibiting a commitment to a return to growth.
Fears of Global Slowing are Front and Center
The spec net long in physical commodities continues to decline, fears of global slowing (particularly from Europe and China) are front and center, and the ever-strong US Dollar is adding into the bear case for commodities.
Alibaba Laying the Foundation for a Commodity Low
While it is premature to suggest that a major bottoming of commodity prices is imminent, a combination of bearish geopolitical pressures, distinctly adverse currency market action, slack physical demand and rising physical supplies could result in a crescendo of selling and perhaps an intermediate bottoming in several markets.
Improving US Economy Looks to Be a Negative For Commodity Prices
Macroeconomic recovery prospects were improved by the actions of the ECB last week, even if the action was months and perhaps years late in coming.
The Pace of US Growth is Too Soft
Another month has drawn to a close, and US economic data has continued to be mixed and largely disappointing to the trade.
Global Economic Progress is Faltering
Global economic progress is apparently faltering, and noted fund managers are warning against having “too much equity market exposure.”
Soaring Treasuries Suggesting US Recovery is Not Sustainable
The Outlook for the Global Economy Not Impressive
Going into the end of April, the economic outlook for the Chinese economy is “unchanged”, the outlook for the US is only minimally improved, and the outlook for the Euro zone is better than most expectations.
Pessimistic Views On Global Recovery Pace
Into the early April high in equities, global economic sentiment was hopeful of a quick return to a progressive recovery pace.