On one hand the Chinese currency debacle has tripped up sentiment, but on the other hand the markets have not shown progressive anxiety, and the shelf-life of the crisis appears fairly short.
Copper
This Week’s Economic Outlook
Once again it appears that deflationary sentiment has reached an excess level with respect to physical commodity pricing.
Macroeconomic Conditions Improving; Return to Growth
Macroeconomic conditions are improving, and the Fed Chairman feels confident enough to weigh in with her own “irrational exuberance” moment with respect to equity valuations.
Global Macroeconomic Prospects Are Improving
With a number of longer-term moving averages signaling reversals in several currencies, fresh record highs in a number of global equity market measures and crude oil prices managing to hold $10 to $12 a barrel above their 2015 lows, global macroeconomic prospects are improving.
Is the Outlook Toward the US Economy Too Lofty?
This week we have to wonder if the outlook toward the US economy is too lofty for the recent valuation in the Dollar.
Evidence of US Growth Has Pushed the Dollar Up
The US economy has bulldogged its way to growth in February, despite adverse weather, ongoing energy sector layoffs, adverse foreign exchange rate action and periodic talk of rising US interest rates.
Migration Toward a Global Recovery
Not surprisingly, the Euro zone debt crisis continues to linger, and the situation in the Ukraine remains highly fluid.
Gradual Improvement in Economic Sentiment is Possible
A number of central banks have implemented fresh easing efforts, German and European economic prospects have shown some minor improvement, and the prospect of lingering cheap energy prices is starting to offer global consumers new confidence.
Negative Sentiment is Overblown!
Recently a talking head on a major television business program was lamenting the ongoing pressure on equities due to the weakness in energy-related shares.
Near Perfect Storm of Negative Sentiment
Sometimes the problem with a cure is that it takes too long to work. In the case of sagging crude oil market, it appears that it has become daily confirmation that the global economy is slowing down.