Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 310
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In this week’s episode we go over the bullish May WASDE report. The USDA is estimating tight new crop ending stocks for corn, wheat and soybeans. We talk about each one and why we think wheat is the most bullish, followed by corn and then soybeans. I also talk about supply and demand balance sheet scenarios and I’ve included my tables below. More to come next week but until then make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
Supply and Demand Scenarios
Below are my supply and demand scenarios for new crop. I think wheat can only get tighter due to the poor HRW conditions and slow planting pace for HRS. Exports for Russia + Ukraine + India could be 10 MMT too high and that means more potential US exports in the 2022/23 marketing years.
I have a bullish and bearish example below for corn. At 90mm acres and a 179 yield, corn stocks are adequate at 1.7 billion and that could lead to $6 at harvest. The bull case of 88mm and 175 bpa means ending stocks are at 1 billion and during a summer weather market corn could trade past the old highs from 2012. That is a big range and it only takes acres and yield to move 1% either way. This is setting up for a very volatile summer market.
Soybeans will most likely be a follower to corn and wheat unless acres are lost or yield comes down. At 91mm and a 51.5 trendline bpa, soybean ending stocks are 300. This is not adequate but not extremely tight either. I guess you can say it is a “snug” 300mm carryout. A loss of 1mm acres and 1 bpa puts beans at a 165 carryout and trading above all time highs this summer. However, 92mm acres and a 52.5 bpa puts stocks at 450 and beans closer to $12. It is hard to see an increase in acres and yields right now but it is a possibility and we need to understand the potential price ranges over the next few months.
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If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
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