We have have a good old-fashioned weather market on our hands. Analysts are now reducing acres and yield for corn and their is a possibility we lose 1 billion bushels in production. Soybean yields are starting to be adjusted lower too. We still have a moderately bullish view of the stock market and hogs. We think cattle is due for a bounce higher but the longer term outlook still looks bearish. Make sure you take a listen to this weeks Turner’s Take Podcast!
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The next couple of weeks makes or break corn. Soybeans could add acres but at current prices with no China deal it is hard to make that case. I think worst case scenarios are CN goes to $3.20, CZ $3.40, SN $7.50, SX, $7.80 WN, $4.00 and KWN $3.60. Maybe $7 soybeans discourages South American planting? Corn has a real chance to rally this spring/summer but it is all about US acres and yield. It will not be a demand story. Farmers need to sell the deferred contracts on rallies and use the new price ranges to sell straddles. The rest of this year is going to be all about Maximizing Opportunity in a Low Priced Environment. I’ll be holding a webinar on that topic soon and updating you about it next week
In this podcast we go over why I am now very pessimistic about a US-China deal and why the May WASDE report may be more bearish than expected. The US-China deal is could drag out for a very long time if this is all about IP and Technology Transfer, which I think it is. China needs to change laws and their political/economic system to meet the demands from the Trump Administration. At this point I can see both sides walking away, tariffs raised, and the US government offer support payments for soybeans again and maybe a more significant assistance with corn (not just 1 cent).I also see the WASDE as bearish on Wednesday. Below are my estimates for New Crop. The columns highlighted in yellow is what I think the USDA will publish on Friday. The other columns are different scenarios based on how acres and yield may change for corn and soybeans
In our latest podcast we go over the impressive US jobs numbers, the weather market developing in corn planting, and how the funds are trapped long in live cattle. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
In our latest podcast we go over why the stock market has rallied, why we could see some weakness due to a “double top”, and why we like buying the breaks. We are excited about the new micro emini S&P 500 contract and we explain why and how we are going to use it. We then dive into the hogs and why we think it will be a long bull market in the deferred contracts. Cattle may have some issues as the fats reverse on the chart and feeders are not looking good either. The grain markets have been very bearish and we explain the reasoning behind the funds massive short position and how we have to trade the grain markets going forward. Make sure you check out this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
The latest US economic reports have been positive for the economy. The grain markets lack a bullish catalyst to get the funds out of their record short positions. Hogs continue to be supported but Cattle may have a hard time sustaining rallies. Crude Oil seems to be range bound and that is how we plan to trade it. Make sure you check out this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
The USDA released their April WASDE yesterday and it was bearish corn as expected. Much of the bearish news was already priced in after the March Quarterly Stocks report. In the podcast we go over the recent Fed comments, an update on the US/China deal, why we see the grain markets as range bound, our bullish view on hogs, our bearish view on cattle, and what we are waiting on before we take a position in crude oil. Make sure you check out the latest episode of Turner’s Take Podcast!
One March 29th the USDA shocked the corn market as Quarterly Stocks came in 270mm bushels higher than expected. New crop corn acre expectations are set at 92.8mm! Old crop closed 17 cents lower on the day and new crop was down 12. While the markets have recovered some, the damage is done and it has caused us to do a rethink on potential price ranges this year. Listen to Turner’s Take Podcast to find out more!
In our new podcast we go over the recent FOMC decision to put a hold on interest rate hikes and unwinding the Fed’s balance sheet. We go over how ASF in China has lead to the Chinese buying pork from the US. We also go over the flooding in the the western Midwest and northern Plains and what it means for corn, soybeans and wheat. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
In our new podcast we go over the macro economy, the latest in the US/China deal, the wheat reversal, why we like corn, hogs, and crude but we don’t love cattle!