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In Turner's Take Podcast, Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast (formerly Inside Commodity Futures) is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.
Corn and soybeans both broke through support today. The demand bears have been in full control of the market while the supply bulls are in retreat. In this podcast we go over the bull and the bear cases. What each of them thinks and why. Below are the Supply and Demand tables I talk about on the podcast. I’ll add some color to the tables below but take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast for a full explanation.
Corn and soybeans both broke through support today. The demand bears have been in full control of the market while the supply bulls are in retreat. In this podcast we go over the bull and the bear cases. What each of them thinks and why. Below are the Supply and Demand tables I talk about on the podcast. I’ll add some color to the tables below but take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast for a full explanation.
In the podcast I go over what the supply bulls and demand bears are fighting about. On the supply side the US could be at a 12.25 billion production level for corn and 3.5 billion for soybeans. If corn production is 12.25 billion (78mm acres harvests X 160 yield) then demand needs to be rationed 400 to 500mm to make sure ending stocks are around 1 billion. The supply bulls argue corn needs to go higher for price rationing.
The CBOT remains range bound as traders debate supply (acres and yield) and demand (exports and feed). The market will have little guidance from the USDA until the August 12th WASDE report. Weather forecasts have temps getting cooler with more precipitations. The US will have a smaller corn and soybean crop this year, but the trade is still debating how small and how much price rationing is needed. In this episode we also dive into what this all means for the 2020-21 corn and soybean crops too. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
The USDA will release their July WASDE on Thursday, July 11th, at 11 am central. We think the report could be bearish for corn and wheat, but has the potential for a bullish surprise in soybeans. Take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast to hear more
Happy Independence Day! It is a holiday week and it feels that way. Wednesday is an early close, Thursday we are closed for Independence Day, and Friday is a full day but the markets should be very quiet. Friday will be like the day after Thanksgiving. In this podcast we go over the bullish and bearish forces in the macro economy, why we think corn will trade in a range of $4.00 to $4.50 for the rest of the summer, why we are concerned about soybeans and wheat, and why we like cotton and cattle. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!
I’m back from my family vacation/reunion and it doesn’t look like much has changed. This Friday we have the Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres report. I think stocks will be high as higher grain prices have hurt US exports. I also think the Planted Acres report could disappoint the bulls. Planted Acres are based on seeded and expected acres as of June 1. Corn and soybean acres will probably be higher than what the market is trading currently. Weather will be critical for the rest of the summer as the crops need a lot of heat, sunshine, and mild rains to minimize the damage already done.
I think corn could have a rough go of it early next week. If so then I think we start to bottom out on Wednesday. After we get the initial crop conditions report out of the way and the WASDE, the market goes back to acres, yield, and how the balance sheets could change going forward.
I think corn could have a rough go of it early next week. If so then I think we start to bottom out on Wednesday. After we get the initial crop conditions report out of the way and the WASDE, the market goes back to acres, yield, and how the balance sheets could change going forward.
Corn and soybeans are consolidating while the Crop Progress reports confirm slow planting. If there is going to be a next leg higher in these markets will have to come from yield reductions. From what we are hearing, next Monday the USDA will release the first corn crop conditions report. That will let us see what is rated Good/Excellent and what is Poor/Very Poor. We expect soybean conditions to be released the week after. We go over our Supply & Demand estimates to estimate what it will take to send corn and soybeans to the next leg higher. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!