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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast | Soybeans Are Back!

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast | Soybeans Are Back!

September 13, 2020 by Craig Turner

Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 247

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Soybeans are back, baby!  After reviewing the WASDE, charts, seasonals, and fundamentals, we’ve concluded soybeans are back to where we were before the tariff trade war and before the Chinese swine flu disaster.  Before those events happened soybeans traded between $9.00 and $10.50, with summer rallies (US or South America) making $12 possible.  In this podcast I make the case that soybeans could be back in that trading range for the rest of the year and for 2021.  Make sure you take a listen to this latest Turner’s Take Podcast!

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WASDE Thoughts

The report was bearish for wheat, neutral for corn, and bullish for soybeans.  Fund money is coming into corn and we can see corn trading another 5 to 15 cents higher.  Export demand is stronger, yields will probably come down again, and you can’t discount the fund money coming into the market as an inflation hedge.

In the short term we can still go higher until harvest ramps up.  Ending stocks are likely to come down between now and the January WASDE but it is hard to see it go below 2 billion.  Front month corn cold trade to $3.80 if Chinese demand continues.  Otherwise we will be waiting to hear about yields from the field to get a handle on the crop size.

I do like buying far out courage calls in March, May and July of 2021 corn.  La Nina is likely to happen this winter and that tends to cause dry conditions in Argentina and parts of Brazil.  In past La Nina years South American production has been lower.  I think we should use the breaks to buy calls in the in the 2021 contracts.

As for soybeans, ending stocks were 456mm bushels and likely to go lower.  We see Chinese demand increasing and yields coming down another bushel per acre.  If soybean stocks get into the mid 300s (and that is our view), then soybeans should be in the high $9s to mid $10s for a while.  If South America has issues to to La Nina, soybeans could trade to $11 and maybe $12.  I would use any harvest pressure to start buying calls to sell into later this year or in 2021.  I also like the March 21 vs Nov 21 spread for hedge and spec traders.

Finally, I thought wheat was bearish and that the corn and soybeans should gain on wheat.  Spread traders should look at corn vs wheat spreads to come in for the rest of 2020.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

Corn Supply & Demand

Soybean Supply & Demand

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Dec 2020 Corn

Continuous Soybeans

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Dec Corn vs Dec SRW Chicago Wheat

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About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

Filed Under: Turner's Take, Turner's Take Podcast

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

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