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Home / Futures Blog / Turner’s Take Podcast | How Much Corn In Iowa Is Lost?

Turner’s Take Podcast | How Much Corn In Iowa Is Lost?

August 18, 2020 by Craig Turner

Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 244

https://media.blubrry.com/inside_commodity_futures/content.blubrry.com/inside_commodity_futures/icf_2020_08_18_episode_0244.mp3

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In our latest podcast we go over the inflation trade and why we like gold (standard and micro contracts).  We talk about ideas for crude oil as it trades in a tight range.  Then we move onto the corn, soybean, and wheat markets.  Finally we take a peak on our initial thoughts for 2021-22 corn and soybeans.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take.

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

Iowa Derecho Damage

The jury is still out on the wind damage to corn in Iowa and NW Illinois. The ranges of estimates range from 150mm to 500mm bushels.  That is a huge divergence and it puts possible ending stocks in a range of 2.25 and 2.6 billion bushels.  The ProFarmer Crop Tour will be in Iowa tomorrow and all of Ag Twitter will be focuses on the pictures and reports coming from the fields.

Soybeans and Wheat have also been rallying but not due to wind damage.  The weather is hot and dry and soybeans need another shower or two in the Midwest to finish the crop.  Soybeans should stay elevated until we see rain materialize.

Wheat had been strong due to Chinese buying HRW from the US and rising EU cash prices.  Rallies over $5.50 in July 21 will be difficult to sustain due to the large global and US wheat balance sheets.   We made our first new crop 2021 sales yesterday at $5.40 in July 21 SRW wheat.  Our next target is $5.50 basis July 2021 SRW wheat.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

2021-2022 Corn and Soybeans

This is our first look at the 2021-2022 crop for corn and soybeans.  These are just estimates based on price and profitability.  This is not from a survey.  Every year we start off our estimates for the next year based on how the market should price next year’s corn and soybeans to get an appropriate balance in supply and demand.  This is not an exact science but more often than not we are very close to the Ag Forum estimates in late February.

We have corn acres going from 92mm to 89mm.  At a trend line yield that means we produce as much as we use next year.  So if ending stocks are 2.5 billion this year, our ending stocks for next year will start off at 2.5 billion too.  We have soybeans increasing form 84mm to 88mm next year.  With a 50 trend line yield ending stocks come down 75mm year over year.

Our initial view is corn acres need to come down to 86mm before we can talk about selling $4.00 new crop corn.  Forward sales and hedges above $3.80 may prove to be a good marketing move if corn acres are 89mm or higher.  Soybeans have the potential to run into the mid to high $9s if acres are 88mm or lower.  More marketing upside potential currently exist for soybeans in our 2021-2022 estimates.

After reviewing this data our next target for 2021-22 corn sales is $3.80 bases Dec 2021 futures. Our next target for 2021-22 soybean sales is $9.50 basis Nov 2021 futures.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

Filed Under: Turner's Take, Turner's Take Podcast

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

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