For most of 2017, equity market gains went hand-in-hand with expectations for improving commodity demand.
Commodity Bears Have More Ammunition Than the Bulls
From a positive perspective, the latest US nonfarm payroll readings have extended the slow, gradual improvement in the economy.
Global Growth Outlook Positive; Commodity Bottom!
Commodity markets appear to have put in a significant low on June 22nd, right into the crude oil low and also in line with the first day of summer.
Will Economic Sentiment Improve?
Given the widespread deflationary liquidation wave of late and a lack of upbeat scheduled data flows, it is difficult to call for an end to the weakness in industrial commodity prices.
Disappointing US Activity, Slide in Commodities
In retrospect, the recent sharp declines in equity prices and significant pressure on industrial commodities were justified by disappointing US scheduled data and the Fed’s move to notch interest rates upward.
US Economic Data Continue to Soften
The good news is that a series of potentially serious geopolitical issues were traversed recently without sustained damage to the global economy or investor sentiment.
Potential For a June Rate Hike Rekindles
Despite the very disappointing US nonfarm payroll report for the month of May, the US and global economies continue to recover, albeit at a slow pace.
World Economy Remains Upbeat
By many measures the world economy continues to recover. The pace is apparently disappointing to commodities but not to equity markets.
Mixed US Numbers Downplays Prospect of June US Rate Hike
While the markets always present a wide range of potentially impactful issues, the current list seems to be unusually broad.
Market Sentiment is Colliding with Reality
The markets have reacted strangely to a number of events over the past two weeks.