In our new podcast we go over the macro economy, the latest in the US/China deal, the wheat reversal, why we like corn, hogs, and crude but we don’t love cattle!
Turner's Take Podcast
In Turner's Take Podcast, Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast (formerly Inside Commodity Futures) is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.
We are back from Commodity Classic in Orlando, FL! Thanks for everyone who came by booth 1061 and said hello. We had a lot of Turner’s Take Podcast listeners come by. That was great and made the trip worth it. I tried to do a podcast from our booth but the sound quality was awful. Oh well. In our podcast today we go over what we heard at Commodity Classic, the US/China trade deal, and our outlook on grains, livestock, and energy. Make sure you check out our latest episode of Turner’s Take Podcast!
The macro markets are turning bullish as the US government nears a budget deal and the US & China make progress on trade. The S&P is now above the 200 day moving average. This should all be supportive of the overall markets. Ag and Energy traders will be watching the US/China negotiations at all times. We go over our ideas on corn, soybeans, crude, RBOB gasoline, hogs, cattle, coffee, sugar, and cotton. Make sure you take a listen to the podcast!
The WASDE came out today and all the estimates came out as expected. I can not remember a more uneventful report with so much data being released. It is clear that the market is waiting on a US/China trade deal resolution. Going forward we see the markets are range bound and we will trade them accordingly starting Monday. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast for a deeper dive into the report!
The February WASDE is tomorrow and it is a combination of the January and February reports. We will see Quarterly and Annual Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings. This has the potential to be a volatile report for the grain and oilseed markets. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
The US government is back open, we will have a WASDE report on Feb 8, and the US/China trade talks are back on. South American weather is stabilizing, US new crop acreage estimates are coming in, and the USDA will start announcing export sales data starting tomorrow. A lot is going on and you need to stay informed. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
Informa came out with estimated acres and pegged soybeans at 86.2mm and corn at 91.5mm. Based on the conversations I’ve had with farmers since the new year I tend to agree with these numbers. 91.5mm acres and 178 trend line yield keeps corn under 2.0 billion carryout, which I think is neutral. It can be bullish with more export demand and spring planting/summer weather issues. 86.2mm for soybeans with a 50 trend line yield puts new crop ending stocks around 600. Not great. That is already factoring in the 5mm mt of new Chinese demand. However, if a US/China deal gets done and China buys another 5mm mt of old crop, then ending stocks for beans are between 450 and 500mm with a trend line yield. That at least has some potential for soybeans to rally in the spring and summer with weather issues. We could even see $10 for new crop under the right conditions.
In this week’s podcast we go over our thoughts on the stock market and why it tends to have a bullish bias over time. We talk about the range bound nature in crude oil and why we might be seeing some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” in Natural Gas next week. We dive into why cocoa and sugar might be bearish while coffee has more potential as a bull market. Then we wrap up with why we need corn to gain on soybeans for new acres and what to look for in hogs and cattle. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!
We are now in the first full week of trading in 2019 and the markets are trading higher for the most part. The US dollar is down and metals are struggling a bit, but the stock market, crude, grains, and livestock are generally higher. We go over all the major futures market sectors and give our opinions for each in the latest episode!
Today is the last trading day of the year and it should be relatively quiet. President Trump over the weekend tweeted that the US and China are making “big progress” on trade talks. China says they are willing to meet the US “half way” on the Intellectual Property disputes. We are also waiting on China to buy more ag products from the US. The market expects another 2mm mt of soybean purchases.