Several years ago, the amount of food consumed inside the home was surpassed by what was consumed outside of the home.
Sentiment Was Overly Negative Going into the 2016 Equity Market Lows
Last week we suggested that the “long dark shadow” of deflation was starting to fade, and given the impressive rally off the February low through the end of the month, we would suggest that sentiment was overly negative going into the 2016 equity market lows, as the global swoon was mostly about disappointing forward momentum and not some major, difficult-to-solve obstacle.
Is the Long, Dark Shadow of Deflation Starting to Fade?
Perhaps the moderation is the result of many markets having already priced-in anemic growth, oversupply and little threat to supply.
Current Sentiment in Favor of the Bear Camp
We continue to think that the current crisis lacks a pedigree, and industry leader Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan) would seem to concur, given that in the wake of stock declines he purchased shares of his company.
Signs of Slowing Inside and Outside the US
It seemed like the initial threat to western markets was from China, but that threat has expanded with a lengthening pattern of slack US data.
The US Economy is Slowly Progressing
Just as US scheduled data has continued to be mixed, the Fed had added confusion regarding their intentions on monetary policy. The general consensus is that the US economy is slowly progressing.
Fundamental Track in Favor of the Bear Camp
Just when it appeared that sentiment had reached a trough, the crude oil market dragged commodities down even further.
Commodity Markets Seeing Bearish Factors
Commodity markets are seeing nearly a perfect storm of bearish factors during the first 2 weeks of 2016.
New Year, Return to Recession?
As 2016 begins, the commodity bears are getting close to a “perfect storm” from all directions.
The Commodity Markets Going Into 2016…
The 2015 market wrap-up suggests that broad-based deflationary sentiment has resulted from a “perfect storm” during the second half of the year.