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Turner's Take

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: Total Factor Productivity – January 23, 2019

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Informa came out with estimated acres and pegged soybeans at 86.2mm and corn at 91.5mm.  Based on the conversations I’ve had with farmers since the new year I tend to agree with these numbers.  91.5mm acres and  178 trend line yield keeps corn under 2.0 billion carryout, which I think is neutral.  It can be bullish with more export demand and spring planting/summer weather issues.  86.2mm for soybeans with a 50 trend line yield puts new crop ending stocks around 600.  Not great.  That is already factoring in the 5mm mt of new Chinese demand.  However, if a US/China deal gets done and China buys another 5mm mt of old crop, then ending stocks for beans are between 450 and 500mm with a trend line yield.  That at least has some potential for soybeans to rally in the spring and summer with weather issues.  We could even see $10 for new crop under the right conditions.

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: Markets Start Year Higher – January 7, 2019

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We are now in the first full week of trading in 2019 and the markets are trading higher for the most part.  The US dollar is down and metals are struggling a bit, but the stock market, crude, grains, and livestock are generally higher.  We go over all the major futures market sectors and give our opinions for each in the latest episode!

Turner’s Take

The Difference Between Bear Markets and Recessions

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I talk to a lot of traders and I’ve noticed many use the words “bear market” and “recession” interchangeably.  Most economic recessions cause bear markets in equities, but a bear market doesn’t have to lead to a recession.  In 1987 the market crashed more then 20% but was not followed by a recession.  That could happen again in 2019 but first lets look at what exactly are bear markets and recessions.

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Newsletter and Podcast | Bitcoin For All?

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  Turner’s Take Podcast | If you are new to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies than this is the podcast for you.  The first 15 minutes of the podcast are dedicated to Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, block chains, and my thoughts on how markets and society deem certain asset classes as “stores of value.”  The second half of the… Read more.