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Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Ag Marketing | May WASDE Bearish

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The next couple of weeks makes or break corn.  Soybeans could add acres but at current prices with no China deal it is hard to make that case.  I think worst case scenarios are CN goes to $3.20, CZ $3.40, SN $7.50, SX, $7.80 WN, $4.00 and KWN $3.60.  Maybe $7 soybeans discourages South American planting?  Corn has a real chance to rally this spring/summer but it is all about US acres and yield.  It will not be a demand story. Farmers need to sell the deferred contracts on rallies and use the new price ranges to sell straddles.  The rest of this year is going to be all about Maximizing Opportunity in a Low Priced Environment.  I’ll be holding a webinar on that topic soon and updating you about it next week

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: Total Factor Productivity – January 23, 2019

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Informa came out with estimated acres and pegged soybeans at 86.2mm and corn at 91.5mm.  Based on the conversations I’ve had with farmers since the new year I tend to agree with these numbers.  91.5mm acres and  178 trend line yield keeps corn under 2.0 billion carryout, which I think is neutral.  It can be bullish with more export demand and spring planting/summer weather issues.  86.2mm for soybeans with a 50 trend line yield puts new crop ending stocks around 600.  Not great.  That is already factoring in the 5mm mt of new Chinese demand.  However, if a US/China deal gets done and China buys another 5mm mt of old crop, then ending stocks for beans are between 450 and 500mm with a trend line yield.  That at least has some potential for soybeans to rally in the spring and summer with weather issues.  We could even see $10 for new crop under the right conditions.

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: Markets Start Year Higher – January 7, 2019

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We are now in the first full week of trading in 2019 and the markets are trading higher for the most part.  The US dollar is down and metals are struggling a bit, but the stock market, crude, grains, and livestock are generally higher.  We go over all the major futures market sectors and give our opinions for each in the latest episode!

Turner’s Take

The Difference Between Bear Markets and Recessions

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I talk to a lot of traders and I’ve noticed many use the words “bear market” and “recession” interchangeably.  Most economic recessions cause bear markets in equities, but a bear market doesn’t have to lead to a recession.  In 1987 the market crashed more then 20% but was not followed by a recession.  That could happen again in 2019 but first lets look at what exactly are bear markets and recessions.