It would appear that the markets are locked and loaded for a March 15th rate hike, with some players suggesting an increase in probability that there will be three hikes this year.
Soybeans
Growing Recovery in the Global Economy
The most important developments this past week were a market-perceived delay in the timing of the next US rate hike, another failed rally in the dollar, and upside breakouts in gold and silver off the latest wave of US/Chinese trade war fears.
Plenty of Positives for Physical Commodities
Just when it appeared that the reflation play was being reversed, the new US Administration managed to return its focus to pro-growth policy initiatives.
Economic Uncertainty Increase, Negative Environment for Physical Commodities
It figures that just when it appeared as if positive equity market action and significant weakness in US Treasuries were about to confirm growth in the US economy, the US economic numbers turned sour.
Disappointing US Data Heading into 2017
US data over the last several weeks have been disappointing, especially when one considers that the economy should have benefited from the holiday season.
The US Fed Moved to Hike Interest Rates
Not surprisingly, the US Fed moved to hike interest rates last week, but the markets were somewhat surprised by the hint of three possible rate hikes in 2017.
Evidence of a Recovery Unfolding in Europe and China
As we mentioned several weeks ago, the steady rise in interest rates is soon to become an issue for a number of markets.
International Headwinds Easing, December Rate Hike Entrenched
The march toward a December rate hike continues, with payroll data and wages for October just good enough to increase the prospect of action from the Fed.
Signs of Improving Global Economy? Or Anticipating US Rate Hike?
We are not sure if the signals being thrown by Treasuries this week are a sign of a longer term change or if we are “putting the cart before the horse.”
The Markets Force the Fed to Act
We were a little surprised with the trading action over the last week.