We are not sure if the signals being thrown by Treasuries this week are a sign of a longer term change or if we are “putting the cart before the horse.”
Gold
The World Economy is Poised to Move Forward
The answer to the US hike/no hike question was not only “no-hike,” it was also combined with a much less hawkish forward view and suggestions that the US economy had more room to run.
World Economic Condition is Disappointing but Not Beyond Resurrection
Either the payrolls report confirmed that a recovery remains in place in the US, or payrolls are indeed a lagging indicator.
Developing Pattern of Weakness in Energy Pricing Weighing in On Commodities
The early July COT spec and fund net long position reading in 20 non-financial commodities, combined with ongoing strength in the US Dollar and favorable US grain production weather, leaves the path of least resistance in most markets pointing to the downside.
2016 Summer Presents Improvement in Technical Posture for Commodities
Gradually the skies are brightening for a host of physical commodities, but various headwinds remain in place into the sixth month of 2016.
US Economy Continues On a Slow, Upward Slope of Recovery
The markets have now “reflated” and have partially corrected!
Forward Progress in the US Economy Has Disappointed
The “talking heads” and “talking fund managers” are suggesting that the rally in commodities is done, unjustified and poised to be reversed.
Growth in the Rest of the World Showing Signs of Improvement
Just when it appeared that commodities were settling back on a deflationary track, leadership surfaced in fresh buying interest in gold, silver, platinum, soybeans, corn and crude oil.
The Progression Away From Deflation Has Begun
Several weeks ago we spoke of a brightening of economic skies, but in this publication, we have to note some short-term vulnerability potential in markets that are overbought and/or markets that might be overly sensitive to a shift by the Fed back toward a more hawkish stance at upcoming FOMC meetings.
Large Grain Supply May Not Be Enough!
Several years ago, the amount of food consumed inside the home was surpassed by what was consumed outside of the home.