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While the severe anxiety of last week may be rejected, the damage to investor and consumer psychology will probably remain in place until the market has logged consecutive days of calm. We hope that the crescendo of economic concern and equity market anxiety will result in…
Depending on who you talk to, the most recent US jobs report was either disappointing or very impressive. Clearly the widely-followed headline gain was very disappointing against expectations, but the massive upward revision in the previous month’s payrolls, a bigger than expected drop in the unemployment rate, a huge…
The old adage that “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” applies to the prospects of a return to inflation. Clearly the latest Fed hike and continuation of hawkish views did not produce any anxiety in the marketplace, and from our perspective there were no suggestions that…
Given that the last significant inflation period was decades ago, it is not surprising that the marketplace has become convinced that a return to inflationary conditions is extremely unlikely. In the wake of the subprime debacle, many economists suggested that a return of inflation would be decades in the making. But looking at current events, it would appear that a classic prescription for such a return has…
Global markets finished an eventful trading week last week with a mildly negative tone, as signs of progress in US/China trade discussions were followed by negative comments late last week that indicated both sides remained far apart. But there were some signs that…
On the one hand the US economy continues to plow forward, but on the other hand trade issues remain threatening, with the US/Chinese situation poised to get worse before it gets better. A US/Canadian deal, which in turn would probably be an updated version of North American Free Trade Agreement, might not have the impact of…
The US stock market continues to climb “a wall of worry,” as less than stellar US economic data, ongoing US/China trade tensions, signs of a building global currency problem, and expectations of a US interest rate hike this month are being discounted…
The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically,Given the ongoing gains in US equities, unrelenting strength in crude oil prices, and a lack of sustained concern over the possible derailment of the global economy by US/China trade salvos, one gets the sense that…
The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically, and the potential for a major risk-off event is growing. Given that US/China trade tensions are escalating and given China’s outsized impact on physical commodities, the threat against…
The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically, and the potential for a major risk-off event is growing. Given that US/China trade tensions are escalating and given China’s outsized impact on physical commodities, the threat against…