This Week in Grain and Oilseeds 1/31-2/4

January 31, 2022 by John Payne

Happy Monday

WE HAVE A NEW APP! CHECK OUT FARM ADVANTAGE HERE! This is a phone where you can access all of your Stonex account trade details, along with Market Intelligence, Weather, Futures quotes and local cash bids. Let me know if you have any questions or would like to take it for a spin.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Chinese markets are closed this week for Lunar New Year. Olympics begin at the end of the week as China and Hong Kong remain locked in to “zero COVID” policies. Hong Kong GDP was downgraded in the overnight as retail sales plummet.
Economic price data comes hot and heavy this week as CPI,PPI and jobs data will be released in the Western world. The Bank of England is expected to hike rates this week, the ECB is not projected to hike at this point until 2023 at the earliest.
US tech earnings will highlight as well, with Amazon being a bell weather considering wage inflation in this country.
Exports will be key to watch this week as corn, beans and cotton break out above contract highs. FEB WASDE will be released next Wednesday. Until then it will be more weather watching out of S. America. Expect more private downgrades to bean crops in Brazil, Paraguay….the wild card is Argentina and the second crop corn in Brazil.
Russia/Ukraine situation has not gone away over the weekend. US wheat traders will be very careful selling ahead as proposed US, EU sanctions on Russia could slash grain exports. The US and European allies have threatened to impose additional sanctions on Russia if the country’s forces enter Ukraine, something that’s sure to curb grain exports, according to Howard Shatz, a senior economist at the RAND Corporation .“Sanctions would make it harder to buy Russian products,” said Shatz. “There’s talk of cutting Russian access to SWIFT. An alternative would be to prohibit transactions with the US and European financial systems. ”The two proposals that would have the most impact on Russian exports would be cutting off Russia’s access to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT), a global communication system linking financial institutions, and the other would be to block the country’s ability to use the US dollar and the euro. H/T Agricensus.

GASC (Egypt) booked 230kmt on Friday, paying just over $325 dollars per MT (9.02 per bushel) before freight for Romanian, Russian and Ukrainian milling supply. Prices paid by GASC have leveled off from late fall bookings. Although one has to wonder how much of that has to do with quantity of supply purchased so far. With 5 months to go in the marketing year and only 1/3 of its projected purchases booked so far, Egyptian buyers have work to do in the coming few months.

CORN (front month continuous)

SOYBEANS / MEAL / OIL

COTTON

KC WHEAT / CHICAGO / MINNEAPOLIS

John Payne
866.825.8561 Toll-Free
312.706.7620 Local
312.706.7520 Fax
john.payne@stonex.com

About John Payne

John Payne is a Senior Futures & Options Broker and Market Strategist with Daniels Trading. He is the publisher of the grain focused newsletter called This Week in Grain, along with being a co-editor of Andy Daniels’s newsletter, Grain Analyst. He has been working as a series 3 registered broker since 2008.

John graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in economics. After school, John embarked on a 4 year career with the United States Navy. It was during two tours in Iraq and the Persian Gulf where John realized how important commodities are to the survival of society as we know it. It was this understanding that brought about John’s curiosity in commodities. Upon his honorable discharge in 2007, John’s intense interest in the world of commodities inspired him to move to Chicago and pursue his passion in a career in the futures arena.

After a three year position with a managed futures firm specialized in livestock trading, he was given the opportunity to join the team at Daniels Trading. Being in the business and seeing how other IB’s operated, it was the integrity and straightforward approach of the Daniels management team and brokers that attracted him to make the move. Since joining Daniels, John has broadened his fundamental and technical analysis of the markets even further. John has been writing his newsletter This Week in Grain under the Daniels banner since 2011.

Working in high pressure industries like the military and capital markets, John has learned the value of preparation in times of stress. He believes that instilling within his clients the value of a good plan and a cool head for dealing with the day to day swings of commodity markets. He treats every client as a teammate, understanding that his job is to help clients achieve their goals, whatever they may be.

John is a proud supporter of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, the Veterans of Foreign Wars and the National Corn Growers Association. When he is not working, he enjoys athletics of all kinds and spending time with his wife and their two kids.

John’s commentary is featured in the following publications:

* All Ag Radio – Sirius Channel 80
* AM 880 KRVN – Lexington, Nebraska
* RFD TV
* Wall Street Journal
* Barron’s
* China News Daily (English version)