Consumer spending in the US grew at a 0.3% rate in the first quarter, the smallest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Wheat
Overly-Negative View Toward the US Economy
All things considered, it is clear that the global economic track has softened and has become a disappointment after the optimism that followed the US election.
Plenty of Supportive Forces for the US Economy
The steep drop in many commodity market sectors could be nearing an end as a little less volatility in financial markets, a more positive tilt to the Chinese and Indian economies and less safe-haven investing could leave the US economy in good shape going forward.
The Markets Undermined By False Hopes
The spec and fund net long of 20 nonfinancial commodities has come down significantly in March (down roughly 650,000 contracts), but it remains at lofty levels.
Possibility of Three Rate Hikes in 2017?
It would appear that the markets are locked and loaded for a March 15th rate hike, with some players suggesting an increase in probability that there will be three hikes this year.
Growing Recovery in the Global Economy
The most important developments this past week were a market-perceived delay in the timing of the next US rate hike, another failed rally in the dollar, and upside breakouts in gold and silver off the latest wave of US/Chinese trade war fears.
US Economic Data Improving While Inflation and Growth in Euro Zone
Recent US economic data has shown some signs of improvement, with industrial production, housing starts and jobless claims all indicating positive progression.
Disappointing US Data Heading into 2017
US data over the last several weeks have been disappointing, especially when one considers that the economy should have benefited from the holiday season.
Shift in Economic Sentiment From the US
While the hype and equity market euphoria from the election has started to moderate, a shift in economic sentiment from inside and outside the US was already in motion, and that could allow for a “risk on” vibe until the markets get closer to the mid-December FOMC meeting.
The Markets Force the Fed to Act
We were a little surprised with the trading action over the last week.