Economic skies continue to brighten as some of the most troubled areas of the world (the Euro zone and Japan) are beginning to show some improvement and the only major nations that appear to be degrading are Brazil and Russia.
Wheat
Migration Toward a Global Recovery
Not surprisingly, the Euro zone debt crisis continues to linger, and the situation in the Ukraine remains highly fluid.
Concerns About Slowing Remain in the Headlines
While we think the bear case for the global economy is already overstated, more long liquidation selling in crude oil is possible.
2015 Commodity Demand Outlook is Better Than You Think
The events in the second half of 2014 will do more to stimulate the global economy than all the central bank and governmental efforts combined.
U.S. wheat prices soar as Russia slows exports
U.S. wheat prices hit a seven-month high, a move that many analysts believe is a response to the Russian government’s interventions in the commodity’s markets.
New Fears of a Return to Recession
Just when it seemed like global economic sentiment was showing signs of improving (or at least stop getting worse), it was dealt a blow with new fears of a return to recession in the Euro zone.
A Turn in Global Economic Headwinds
Negative headline news has reached a fever pitch, seasonal commodity price pressure remains in place, adverse Dollar action dominates, and perhaps most importantly, the international economic outlook continues to deteriorate.
Fears of Global Slowing are Front and Center
The spec net long in physical commodities continues to decline, fears of global slowing (particularly from Europe and China) are front and center, and the ever-strong US Dollar is adding into the bear case for commodities.
Global Economic Psychology Has Improved
Global economic psychology has improved, partly because of easing tensions in the Black Sea region but also because of generally positive US scheduled data flows.
Disappointing Pace of Recovery & Declining Prices
The outlook for the global economy has improved marginally, with a series of positive US data providing some respite from the generally discouraging economic news flowing from Europe and China.