We think that commodity markets were short-term and perhaps even intermediately overbought going into their recent highs.
Wheat
Global Markets May Have a Brighter Outlook
An improvement in US and European manufacturing activity as well as news that the “official” Chinese PMI number climbed back into expansion territory for the first time in 8 months bodes well for a more sustainable global recovery effort.
Large Grain Supply May Not Be Enough!
Several years ago, the amount of food consumed inside the home was surpassed by what was consumed outside of the home.
Is the Long, Dark Shadow of Deflation Starting to Fade?
Perhaps the moderation is the result of many markets having already priced-in anemic growth, oversupply and little threat to supply.
Fundamental Track in Favor of the Bear Camp
Just when it appeared that sentiment had reached a trough, the crude oil market dragged commodities down even further.
New Year, Return to Recession?
As 2016 begins, the commodity bears are getting close to a “perfect storm” from all directions.
The Deflationary Selling Binge in Commodities Has Continued with a Vengeance
The deflationary selling binge in commodities has continued with a vengeance, with sagging crude oil prices leading the way.
Positive Sentiment Hard to Come By
The US Federal Reserve appeared to be “threading the needle” with their narrative supporting a December interest rate hike, as they emphasized that the future rate path will be slow and gradual.
Impressive Stock Market Rally Has Continued in the Face of Mixed US Economic Data
An impressive stock market rally has continued in the face of mixed US economic data, China continues to show signs of weakness, and the Euro zone isn’t sure if it needs more central bank assistance.
Long and Slow Global Recovery, Commodities in Downward Motion
One almost can’t tell if the world economy is getting better or worse.