While the markets might not believe that the oil producers’ deal to reduce output will be fulfilled, it does appear that US crude oil inventories are tightening and global demand is creeping higher.
Wheat
World Economic Condition is Disappointing but Not Beyond Resurrection
Either the payrolls report confirmed that a recovery remains in place in the US, or payrolls are indeed a lagging indicator.
The Fed Passed on Hiking Rates; Commodity Markets Not Impressed
The Fed passed on hiking rates, but the lift to most commodity markets off that news was not very impressive, and this suggests that the path of least resistance is likely to remain down.
Developing Pattern of Weakness in Energy Pricing Weighing in On Commodities
The early July COT spec and fund net long position reading in 20 non-financial commodities, combined with ongoing strength in the US Dollar and favorable US grain production weather, leaves the path of least resistance in most markets pointing to the downside.
Potential For Negative Headlines Ahead
While there might be flare ups off the eventual splitting of the UK from the EU, both parties seem to understand it is in their best interest to minimize the headwinds to economic growth.
The Level of Big-Picture Macroeconomic Uncertainty Is On the Decline
Death and Pestilence off of Brexit has failed to surface so far!
Starting To See a Deteriorating Forward View
Recent talk of fresh easing from the BOJ and BOE seems to have been largely discounted as ineffective, and that has prompted a revival of safe haven interest in gold and US Treasuries.
Commodity Markets Facing Fundamental Junctions Directly Ahead
The USDA report follows a May report that shifted the 2016/17 crop outlook from definitively bearish to moderately less bearish.
Technical Ag Knowledge
This is a sample entry from Tom Dosdall’s newsletter, Technical Ag Knowledge, published on Monday May 23, 2016. **Crop progress numbers will be released today @ 3PM (CST).** Ag Markets Jul ’16 Corn Corn is starting to look a little tired here at the top of the range and may need some fresh fundamental news… Read more.
Gains in Commodities Historically Hint at Inflation
Seeing silver, sugar and soybeans forge strong price gains has historically hinted at inflation, but that type of forecast seems foolhardy in the current environment.
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