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WASDE
Positive, Big-Picture Developments to Impact Energy, Metals, and Grains
The commodity markets ended last week with a couple of positive, big-picture developments. The most significant is the lack of strong data and inflation measures, as this clearly undermines the dollar and tempers interest rate hike fears. While the energy complex might be poised for a temporary correction, classic fundamentals and the Middle East political situation look to leave oil prices…
Volatile Week Ahead, Growth in the Long Run
It could be a very volatile week ahead as the market deals with factors that could slow US economic growth in the short term.
US Economic Prospects Disappoint, International Economic Conditions Improve
The US data has been patently discouraging; the Trump administration continues to squander political capital; and the prospect for pro-growth policy initiatives continue to be pushed further and further into the future.
International Headwinds Easing, December Rate Hike Entrenched
The march toward a December rate hike continues, with payroll data and wages for October just good enough to increase the prospect of action from the Fed.
Will the US Fed Act to Get Rates to a Normal, Non-Crisis State?
Evidence over the last month suggests to us that the BREXIT has not had as negative an impact as was expected.
How Will Commodities in the Summer of 2016 Be Defined?
Since the March lows, several physical commodities have forged rallies that few expected, and with even fewer anticipating the magnitude of those rallies.
Near Perfect Storm of Negative Sentiment
Sometimes the problem with a cure is that it takes too long to work. In the case of sagging crude oil market, it appears that it has become daily confirmation that the global economy is slowing down.
Positive Forward Economic Views
Tthe outlook for the global economy is quite positive…
Downgrade in Global Economic Expectations; Rise in Geopolitical Anxiety
Over the last two weeks there has been a downgrade in global economic expectations, some adverse currency market action for commodities, and a continued rise in geopolitical anxiety.