Not surprisingly, the US Fed moved to hike interest rates last week, but the markets were somewhat surprised by the hint of three possible rate hikes in 2017.
USDA
Signs of Improving Global Economy? Or Anticipating US Rate Hike?
We are not sure if the signals being thrown by Treasuries this week are a sign of a longer term change or if we are “putting the cart before the horse.”
Dollar Moves Higher; Oversupply For Soybeans
A strengthening US dollar and uncertainties in global stock markets have helped to drive some commodity markets lower over the past few weeks, and the possible appearance of a double top in crude oil has many macro-fund traders getting concerned about the outlook ahead.
The Markets Force the Fed to Act
We were a little surprised with the trading action over the last week.
The Fed Looks to Remain On Hold Through December
While the markets might not believe that the oil producers’ deal to reduce output will be fulfilled, it does appear that US crude oil inventories are tightening and global demand is creeping higher.
Will There Be Forward Progress in the US?
What we don’t know is the pace of the global recovery, but what we might know is that there is some measure of forward progress in the US, Europe and China.
Will the US Fed Act to Get Rates to a Normal, Non-Crisis State?
Evidence over the last month suggests to us that the BREXIT has not had as negative an impact as was expected.
Starting To See a Deteriorating Forward View
Recent talk of fresh easing from the BOJ and BOE seems to have been largely discounted as ineffective, and that has prompted a revival of safe haven interest in gold and US Treasuries.
Brexit Injected Volatility into Global Markets
The “unexpected” happened with the UK referendum to leave the EU.
How Will Commodities in the Summer of 2016 Be Defined?
Since the March lows, several physical commodities have forged rallies that few expected, and with even fewer anticipating the magnitude of those rallies.