What we don’t know is the pace of the global recovery, but what we might know is that there is some measure of forward progress in the US, Europe and China.
The “unexpected” happened with the UK referendum to leave the EU.
The USDA report follows a May report that shifted the 2016/17 crop outlook from definitively bearish to moderately less bearish.
A much better than forecast look at October US jobs data has strengthened the chances for a December Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
As we indicated last week, outside market forces appear to be reaching a zenith, and with the noted letdown in the dollar in June, the hope of sidestepping a financial debacle in Europe, and the promise of ongoing aggressive QE from the ECB, it would not be surprising to see a persistent improvement in global economic sentiment.
The quickest and cleanest track to a major top in the Dollar was for US economic numbers to remain strong and for US economic strength to pull the Euro zone into self-propagating growth.
US markets received a barrage of key economic data points last week that pointed to an improving US growth trajectory.
While Treasury and gold prices seem to think that the US economy is slipping back into a slow or no-growth posture, the odds are good that economic activity was merely crimped by one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record.
Looking at the action in stocks last week, we might develop some concern for the pace of the US recovery, especially in the wake of a soft December Non-Farm Payroll result, sub-par sales guidance from a couple of bellwether US companies and from fears that the Fed might continue to taper even in the face of uneven US data.