The number of negative geopolitical issues has expanded consistently over the last two weeks, and this has undermined the long bull market in equities.
Treasury Bonds
Commodity Bears Have More Ammunition Than the Bulls
From a positive perspective, the latest US nonfarm payroll readings have extended the slow, gradual improvement in the economy.
June 2- Breakout Trade in Treasury Bond Futures
Treasury bond futures had a breakout setup for Friday, which was logical given the May employment report was released this morning. This setup, combined with the market’s proximity to its contact high, made this a good market to trade this morning. In last night’s edition of Swing Trader’s Insight I labeled T bonds as a… Read more.
US Economic Prospects Disappoint, International Economic Conditions Improve
The US data has been patently discouraging; the Trump administration continues to squander political capital; and the prospect for pro-growth policy initiatives continue to be pushed further and further into the future.
Overly-Negative View Toward the US Economy
All things considered, it is clear that the global economic track has softened and has become a disappointment after the optimism that followed the US election.
The Environment for Physical Commodities Could Be Negative in the Coming Weeks
While the inevitable happened in the March FOMC meeting, the reaction in the dollar was very surprising and was modestly supportive to a number of commodities.
Possibility of Three Rate Hikes in 2017?
It would appear that the markets are locked and loaded for a March 15th rate hike, with some players suggesting an increase in probability that there will be three hikes this year.
Growing Recovery in the Global Economy
The most important developments this past week were a market-perceived delay in the timing of the next US rate hike, another failed rally in the dollar, and upside breakouts in gold and silver off the latest wave of US/Chinese trade war fears.
Plenty of Positives for Physical Commodities
Just when it appeared that the reflation play was being reversed, the new US Administration managed to return its focus to pro-growth policy initiatives.
Prices Heading Back Toward Summer Lows?
Looking at a weekly or daily chart of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), commodity prices seem expensive.
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