Gold bugs and other “true believers” in the precious metals futures tend to be about as stubborn (and masochistic) a group of traders as there is. They go long and are able to withstand an extreme amount of pain before throwing in the towel and pitching long positions. This characteristic often makes gold and silver futures good candidates for breakout sales.
Taylor Trading Technique
Currency futures can be a challenge to trade. Unlike some markets that see their best liquidity (and often the best moves) during US trading hours, currencies can see action almost any time of the day or night, and some of the best moves can occur when the “home market” is open-during Tokyo trading hours for the Yen or European hours for the Euro, Pound and Swiss.
Years ago I read an article that Larry Connors wrote about a trade setup he called “If They’re Late, They’re Dead”. I can’t remember how his setup worked but the name is a good way to think of what to do with breakout trades. Breakouts tend to be trades that work if you can get in on them early but if you’re late you can get your head handed to you.
On Monday the stock index futures ended their Chinese water torture selloff and stage a good Taylor Trading Technique Buy day rally. Yesterday was the Sell day in the cycle. That’s what yesterday looked like — the two sided trade of a distribution day.
There are all sorts of sayings about how you learn more from your losers than your winners. In that spirit I thought I would go through a trade in the soybeans today.
A main tenet of the Taylor Trading Technique is the idea of the “violation” before a TTT trade signal – on a TTT Buy day we anticipate an initial move below the previous low, on a Sell Short day it’s an initial move over the previous session high. We then wait for the market’s trend to reverse and to enter when the momentum is heading in the forecast direction.
Corn and Wheat futures had a good rally off midweek lows. After two days of rally the Taylor Trading Technique was looking for a Sell Short day today. The anticipation aspect of the TTT was helpful this morning.
In last night’s Swing Trader’s Insight update my comment for the gold futures was “Buy day, careful”. By the Taylor Trading Technique today is a Buy day meaning we should look for an initial move below yesterday’s low (the reference price) and then a rally back over it.
I probably sound like a broken record for writing this but I like to trade crude oil futures when the weekly EIA crude oil inventory report is released. It has the potential to cause sudden market move but is often less likely to cause the crazy overshoot reactions of a once a month report.
Yesterday stock index futures staged a rally out of a breakout setup, closing near the session high. Following a breakout rally the Taylor Trading Technique tells us to anticipate a Sell short day; there were a number of interesting factors in today’s setup.