The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically, and the potential for a major risk-off event is growing. Given that US/China trade tensions are escalating and given China’s outsized impact on physical commodities, the threat against…
Soybeans
Growing Potential for Major Risk-Off Event, Gasoline Prices Most Vulnerable
The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically, and the potential for a major risk-off event is growing. Given that US/China trade tensions are escalating and given China’s outsized impact on physical commodities, the threat against…
Is China Losing Ground in Trade Battle? Pressure Is on US Despite Positivity in US Economy
The US economy has remained on a positive jobs track and Chinese stocks have remained under pressure, and that could be suggesting that China is losing ground in the trade battle. However, dialogue in the US…
Signs of Optimism in Global Economic Condition Face Headwinds of Supply and Demand
On balance, global economic conditions improved over the last week, with a slight tempering of trade tensions, strong US growth readings, and ideas that a number of central banks are seeing conditions that will allow them to plan stimulus exits…
Market Sentiment Keeping Prospect of Commodity Selling High
Judging by the reactions in the markets, sentiment on global equities has not been injured by the trade salvos, but sentiment on a number of demand-driven commodities has. With China posting yet another record trade surplus with the US for the month of June and…
Bearish Commodity Headline Flow Approaching its Peak? High-Volatility Bottoms Possible in Coming Weeks
As of this writing, the bearish physical commodity headline flow has the feel of an approaching peak. Very good growing conditions in the US, concerns over an internet tax, the recent US rate hike, an 11-month high in the dollar, sentiment injury, tension over immigration, an explosion in global tariff threats, and a slight loosening of world oil production restraint leave physical commodities…
Favorable Demand Conditions to Offset Vulnerabilities in Commodity Markets
Many commodity markets appear to be vulnerable to corrective action, despite the fact that the dollar is showing signs of weakening and providing support from an export perspective. Favorable weather, a historically strong start…
Bullish Forces in Commodities Capable of Counteracting Geopolitical Headwinds
Last week was probably the most epic geopolitical week in years. It featured yet another iteration of US/Chinese trade barbs, an escalation of Russian/US military tensions, and a missile attack by Yemeni rebels against Saudi Arabia. Countervailing these headwinds were…
Improved Expectations in Metals and Treasuries Contrasts Potential Volatility in Physical Commodities
With US scheduled data into the end of March/end of quarter coming in positive and the trade facing the March nonfarm payroll report at the end of this week, it is possible that US economic expectations will be improved and markets like Treasuries, equities, copper, silver, platinum and palladium will resume the trends in place from the end of February. However, physical commodities…
Markets Showing Some Signs of Stability Amid Trade War Concerns
Following turbulent trading last Wednesday and Thursday, global markets were showing some signs of stability ahead of the weekend. While the announcement of US tariffs on Chinese goods have led to a flare-up of trade friction and dampened risk appetites, there is some potential for tensions to cool down, as businesses will have a chance to discuss many of the tariffs with the US government before they go into effect.