In looking ahead to the coming week, we expect additional commodity pressure going into the FOMC meeting off of a stronger dollar in anticipation of an interest rate hike.
The markets have seemingly become comfortable with a “one and done” rate hike from the Fed in December or sometime in early 2016.
Risk sentiment received a shot in the arm last week after the latest FOMC meeting tamped down concerns over global growth and used more decisive language in favor of a December interest rate hike.
An impressive stock market rally has continued in the face of mixed US economic data, China continues to show signs of weakness, and the Euro zone isn’t sure if it needs more central bank assistance.
The impressive stock market rally so far in October highlights the ability of the marketplace to put an optimistic face on the global situation.
As we start to see a hooking pattern develop in this market, I like the idea of buying this market here. The risk will be just under last week’s low to see if we get the bounce we are looking for.
March soybeans traded down as much as 7 1/4 cents in an actively traded overnight (lo 10.1650) but a recovery in outside forces and continued strong gains in wheat due to Russia export restrictions was enough to support a strong bounce.
Global economic activity remains disappointing, but medicine in the form of another wave of central bank easing, cheaper energy prices and currency exchange windfalls for the weakest areas of the developed world are in place.
The cash soybean meal market has eased up a bit. There was a record large October crush and cargos are being switched from the US to South America.
The markets are higher this morning and the trade continues to follow the tight soybean meal situation.