The highest inflation measure in more than 40 years has left many markets in utter disarray: Nasdaq is at its lowest since 2020, interest rates are their highest since 2007, and the US dollar is the strongest it’s been since the early aughts
Small Exchange
The End of an Era for the Euro
If you started trading in the last two decades, you’ve only known a world in which the euro is worth more than the US dollar. You’d have to go all the way back to 2002 to find data points representing the EUR/USD conversion rate that start with a zero to the left of the decimal point.
Probabilities are Accurate Until They Aren’t
What do all the probabilities in your life have in common? They’re all dynamic – constantly changing. At the conclusion of the event a binary 0% or 100% is realized, but the journey to that ending can witness wild swings in either direction….
How the Fed Affects Interest Rates
If the Fed is one of the most influential voices in interest rate pricing, then how can interest rate markets move lower on the actual day that the Fed hiked rates? Futures and options have a time component that requires traders to think steps ahead, and you can see by the price action in S2Y futures leading up to the actual event that this hike had been…
Neutral Trading Strategies for an Inactive Market
What do you do when the dust settles, the smoke clears, and you’re left with middling markets? After quite a volatile May, June has seen the stock market bounce back (albeit slightly) and the US dollar cool off..
Probabilistic Modeling for Trending Markets
Many mathematicians start with the same, single assumption when they commence any probabilistic modeling: the probability of a market moving higher or lower on any given day is 50%. Though this may seem oversimplified…
How High Will Crude Oil Prices Go?
When commodity prices take off in the short term people tend to fear long-term changes to their everyday lives, especially when it comes to one with such large implications downstream as crude oil does.
The Power of the Call Option
The wide world of options can open up an everyday trader’s portfolio to P/L fluctuations unseen in the outright world of shares and futures. You can take advantage of large moves higher while only putting up a small, set amount of capital by buying calls. You can make money from a particular market’s demise without the risk of going short by buying puts.
Three Easy Ways to Buy Gold and Silver
Most New Year’s resolutions are doomed from the start. You create too lofty a goal that must be accomplished in 365 days and usually commit too intensely in the first 30 and fall too easily back into bad habits by day 100.
Learning Futures with Low Risk and Sound Strategy
Most New Year’s resolutions are doomed from the start. You create too lofty a goal that must be accomplished in 365 days and usually commit too intensely in the first 30 and fall too easily back into bad habits by day 100.