An improvement in US and European manufacturing activity as well as news that the “official” Chinese PMI number climbed back into expansion territory for the first time in 8 months bodes well for a more sustainable global recovery effort.
Several years ago, the amount of food consumed inside the home was surpassed by what was consumed outside of the home.
Last week we suggested that the “long dark shadow” of deflation was starting to fade, and given the impressive rally off the February low through the end of the month, we would suggest that sentiment was overly negative going into the 2016 equity market lows, as the global swoon was mostly about disappointing forward momentum and not some major, difficult-to-solve obstacle.
The impressive stock market rally so far in October highlights the ability of the marketplace to put an optimistic face on the global situation.
We won’t suggest that the recent lows in many commodities are solid, but value-hunt buying of copper assets by Carl Icahn, a $4.00 single-day rise in crude oil prices, and a 1,000-point, 2-day bounce in the Dow suggest that sentiment was overdone on a number of fronts.
The list of positive global data flows expanded last week with improvements in UK Unemployment, China Retail Sales, and US February and March Industrial Production figures.