The recent market action appears to have been a capitulation event that has exaggerated global slowing fears.
Natural Gas
Fears of Global Slowing are Front and Center
The spec net long in physical commodities continues to decline, fears of global slowing (particularly from Europe and China) are front and center, and the ever-strong US Dollar is adding into the bear case for commodities.
Disconcerting Outlook for the Third Quarter
The tone of the global economy has deteriorated over the last month, and it has become apparent that portions of the Euro zone were much softer than expected during the second quarter.
The World Economic Outlook Downshifted
The question of valuations was apparently answered recently, as stock prices fell sharply despite a very favorable psychological kick-off to the US earnings cycle.
Euro Zone is Openly Concerned About Deflationary Pressures
The Fed managed to extend the pattern of new highs in global equities by maintaining its old stance and simply reiterating the prospect for rates to remain at low levels for an extended period of time.
Global Economic Progress is Faltering
Global economic progress is apparently faltering, and noted fund managers are warning against having “too much equity market exposure.”
Soaring Treasuries Suggesting US Recovery is Not Sustainable
Is the US Economy Slipping Back?
While Treasury and gold prices seem to think that the US economy is slipping back into a slow or no-growth posture, the odds are good that economic activity was merely crimped by one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record.
US Growth Expectations Signaling a Long, Slow Recovery
Over the last two months, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has racked up some fairly impressive gains, suggesting that commodities have been sensing improvement in the global economic outlook.
Widespread Confusion Over Global Outlook
Over the last two weeks, the outlook for the global economy has fostered some widespread confusion. The December US Non-Farm Payroll gain was clearly disappointing, but that news was countervailed by increased attention on the decline in the US unemployment rate.