If the Fed is one of the most influential voices in interest rate pricing, then how can interest rate markets move lower on the actual day that the Fed hiked rates? Futures and options have a time component that requires traders to think steps ahead, and you can see by the price action in S2Y futures leading up to the actual event that this hike had been…
What if there was a market that, after months of laying dormant in a range of just a few pennies, rose by nearly 100% on guidance from a major influencer? That’s right, the next Dogecoin could be 2YR Treasury yields.
Though they employ the same word, the two phrases “return to normal” and “new normal” are diametrically opposed. If you’ve witnessed a live television commercial break in the last month, then you’re probably aware of society’s return to normal; while interest rates, on the other hand, are threatening a new normal as they fail to lift off 0%.
While “The Steepening” may sound like a Hollywood-produced thriller wherein an animated monster made of tea leaves terrorizes some unassuming small town, it’s in fact the increase in the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates.
For decades now, traders’ exposure to interest rates has been confined to allocating some small percentage of retirement funds to some bond fund for some reason like diversification.