Despite the best efforts of the left, right and center factions in Greece, the situation there should drift from being a major influence on international financial markets to a second page, sad, social event.
Greece
This Week in Grain – July 13-17
Before I get into the week ahead, crop progress was just released. Just looking at it on the margins, the crop is pretty darned good from a national perspective.
Uncertainty Toward Financial and Economic Conditions Has Reached a Crossroads
We have to predict a major agricultural and financial juncture just ahead.
Global Recovery On the Horizon
We think that a September US rate hike is off the table because of a lack of definitive forward progression in the US jobs sector. The unending Greek saga combined with a rising Dollar has created enough headwinds to keep the Fed on the sidelines until later in the year.
Commodity Sentiment Anticipating Normal Inflation Ahead
Things are changing on the macroeconomic front, as instead of patently deflationary fears, sentiment is starting to anticipate normal inflation ahead.
Persistent Improvement in Global Economic Sentiment
As we indicated last week, outside market forces appear to be reaching a zenith, and with the noted letdown in the dollar in June, the hope of sidestepping a financial debacle in Europe, and the promise of ongoing aggressive QE from the ECB, it would not be surprising to see a persistent improvement in global economic sentiment.
Outside Market Forces Weigh Heavily on Commodity Prices
In all markets, there are inside market forces and outside market forces. What outside forces are affecting physical commodity prices?
Macroeconomic Conditions Improving; Return to Growth
Macroeconomic conditions are improving, and the Fed Chairman feels confident enough to weigh in with her own “irrational exuberance” moment with respect to equity valuations.
Gradual Improvement in Economic Sentiment is Possible
A number of central banks have implemented fresh easing efforts, German and European economic prospects have shown some minor improvement, and the prospect of lingering cheap energy prices is starting to offer global consumers new confidence.
2015 Bringing Better Than Expected Economic Growth
An impressive January rally in gold, a shift from a spec and fund net short position to a net long in US Treasury Bonds and a dramatic downside extension in the Canadian Dollar on its monthly charts suggests that global economic sentiment is factoring in a fall back towards recession.