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Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: WASDE Bearish Corn

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Corn and soybeans both broke through support today.  The demand bears have been in full control of the market while the supply bulls are in retreat.  In this podcast we go over the bull and the bear cases.  What each of them thinks and why.  Below are the Supply and Demand tables I talk about on the podcast.  I’ll add some color to the tables below but take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast for a full explanation.

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: The Bull and the Bear Case for Corn and Soybeans

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Corn and soybeans both broke through support today.  The demand bears have been in full control of the market while the supply bulls are in retreat.  In this podcast we go over the bull and the bear cases.  What each of them thinks and why.  Below are the Supply and Demand tables I talk about on the podcast.  I’ll add some color to the tables below but take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast for a full explanation.

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: Supply Bulls vs Demand Bears – July 23, 2019

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In the podcast I go over what the supply bulls and demand bears are fighting about.  On the supply side the US could be at a 12.25 billion production level for corn and 3.5 billion for soybeans.  If corn production is 12.25 billion (78mm acres harvests X 160 yield) then demand needs to be rationed 400 to 500mm to make sure ending stocks are around 1 billion.  The supply bulls argue corn needs to go higher for price rationing.

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: CBOT Range Bound – July 16, 2019

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The CBOT remains range bound as traders debate supply (acres and yield) and demand (exports and feed).  The market will have little guidance from the USDA until the August 12th WASDE report.  Weather forecasts have temps getting cooler with more precipitations.  The US will have a smaller corn and soybean crop this year, but the trade is still debating how small and how much price rationing is needed.  In this episode we also dive into what this all means for the 2020-21 corn and soybean crops too. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: Knee High By The Fourth Of July – July 2, 2019

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Happy Independence Day!  It is a holiday week and it feels that way.  Wednesday is an early close, Thursday we are closed for Independence Day, and Friday is a full day but the markets should be very quiet.  Friday will be like the day after Thanksgiving.  In this podcast we go over the bullish and bearish forces in the macro economy, why we think corn will trade in a range of $4.00 to $4.50 for the rest of the summer, why we are concerned about soybeans and wheat, and why we like cotton and cattle.  Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!

Turner’s Take

Turner’s Take Podcast: Planted Acres Report Could Disappoint – June 25, 2019

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I’m back from my family vacation/reunion and it doesn’t look like much has changed.  This Friday we have the Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres report.  I think stocks will be high as higher grain prices have hurt US exports.  I also think the Planted Acres report could disappoint the bulls.  Planted Acres are based on seeded and expected acres as of June 1.  Corn and soybean acres will probably be higher than what the market is trading currently.  Weather will be critical for the rest of the summer as the crops need a lot of heat, sunshine, and mild rains to minimize the damage already done.