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New Crop looks bad. We estimate we lose another 150mm in demand from low energy prices in the 2020-21 marketing year. With 97 million acres and a trend line yield we see ending stocks blowing out to 3.4 billion. This puts cash prices and harvest lows under $3.
I am working from home while IL has a Stay at Home order in effect. My office cell is 312-651-4621. My office phone 312-706-7610 will roll over to my cell phone if you call my trade desk. This week we talk about the steps that took place so a potential bottom could be made. I think the market is now heading into a period of wide ranging consolidation. We talk about what to look for and why in the coming weeks for stocks, energy, livestock and grains. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
Exit April-Oct as it surges
Its a big option expiration day in the markets, today will likely see record volume across everything. Grains and beans are on the move
I’m working from home as the country goes into lockdown. My office cell is 312-651-4621. My office phone 312-706-7610 will roll over to my cell phone if you call my trade desk. This week we talk about the macro markets and how the US Federal Reserve, Treasury, Congress, and Administration will be dealing with the coronavirus crisis going forward. We talk about how interest rates and treasuries are stabilizing (step #1 in any recovery). We then go into what needs to happen for stocks and energy to stabilize. Once that happens all the markets can start to recover. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
Its been a good day so far for bull spreads. We are going to venture into cattle
Potential closing of the Mexican border gives cattle a boost. Corn gets hit by falling ethanol basis and the loss of exports to Mexico
Fed injects more liquidity in treasury market today than in all of Q1 2009. Grains hang in, equities do not
To say things have been busy since Sunday night would be a gross understatement. In this podcast we go over what to looks for going in the coming weeks with respect to coronavirus, the economic implications, government stimulus,and what markets to watch that signal a recovery/reversal. There are certain markets we need to see stabilize before a recovery can happen. We also need to see the rate of new coronavirus cases start to trend down (and not up), which we may not see for at least a couple of weeks.
This virus situation is such a weird dynamic, we don’t really know how to gauge how it will affect price.