The CBOT lacks direction as the bulls argue lower production and potential Chinese demand. The bears point to lower exports & high US prices
Grain Trading Podcast
Corn and soybean basis continues to get stronger as the production estimates get smaller. Add in potential Chinese demand and the CBOT could make the next leg higher
A bullish quarterly stocks reports has shifted possible prices ranges for corn and soybeans materially higher. New Crop Corn could have a carryout sub 2 billion with the potential to go lower due to lower yields this year. Soybeans could be sub 500, which seemed impossible six months ago.
This week we go over our thoughts on the stock market and why we like having exposure to the S&P 500. We go over why corn and soybeans still have 25 to 50 cents of weather/yield premium due to frost and harvest risk. Rallies in the grain and oilseeds are marketing opportunities for next year. Take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast for more details
In our latest podcast we go over the expected Fed interest rate cut, the attack on Saudi Arabia’s crude oil operations, Chinese soybean purchases, and what we want to do in the grain markets for 2020. We also talk about livestock, Trump’s disposition to choose financial wars over military wars, and finishing weather for US crops. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast
This week we look into the latest developments in the US/China trade war. We then switch to the USDA’s September WASDE report that will be released tomorrow at 11 am central. While we think corn and soybeans can rally in the short term, farmers should be using increases in price to sell 2019 new crop and also start to price/hedge 2020 and 2021. Finally we look into livestock and energy, and why we think Cattle may have bottomed. Take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!
This week we talk about Alan Greenspan’s comments on negative interest rates in the US and what it could mean for other assets like real estate, stocks, and gold. We take a look at the bearish price action in the grain markets as demand continues to be very poor. At the end of the podcast we briefly review our positions in hogs, cattle and crude.
This week we take another look at 2020-21 corn and soybeans projections. We make conservative assumptions about 2019-20 final production and 2020-21 acres, yields, and demand. If there are no big production surprises in the US or South America, then corn and soybeans could be substantially lower next year. ASF will be an issue for global feed demand and the US/China trade war has no end in sight. Take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast to learn more.
In our latest podcast we go over our thoughts on the macro economy and why we like gold, the stocks market and the US Dollar. Then we talk about how grains typically make a seasonal low at the end of August and why we like the corn and soybeans in Sept/Oct. Next up is livestock and how we want to play cattle and hogs. Finally we talk about the reversal in crude oil calendar spreads and how we want to get involved.
Corn and soybeans both broke through support today. The demand bears have been in full control of the market while the supply bulls are in retreat. In this podcast we go over the bull and the bear cases. What each of them thinks and why. Below are the Supply and Demand tables I talk about on the podcast. I’ll add some color to the tables below but take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast for a full explanation.