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The markets are higher today as more snow is forecast in the central US and that will further delay corn harvest. Farmer sales also tend to slow down during the week of Thanksgiving and that can be supportive too. Andy Daniels, the founder of Daniels Trading, has an opinion about rice today
The markets are higher today as more snow is forecast in the central US and that will further delay corn harvest. Farmer sales also tend to slow down during the week of Thanksgiving and that can be supportive too. Andy Daniels, the founder of Daniels Trading, has an opinion about rice today
Export sales were above the average estimates and towards the top of the ranges. US corn is well priced at these levels as are soybeans. Corn is competitive with the Black Sea and South America will be out of the export game for the next few months. US Soybeans are now about 30 cents under Brazil for December and 10 under for January. Support for Jan Soybean is $9.00 and then $8.90. A break below $8.90 could cause the funds to go from net long to net short. I personally don’t see the funds getting net short unless the Phase One trade deal completely falls apart.
The USDA made small changes to the corn and soybeans supply and demand tables. Corn yields came down to 167.0 from 168.4. Bulls were hoping form more than a 1.4 bpa decrease.
CBOT markets chopped in range today on low volume. Pork exports were the highest of the marketing year. With China’s need for pork and a potential Phase One trade deal on the horizon, this could be just the start for strong pork export demand
The US and China will resume high level trade talks next week. We are bullish grains and oilseeds short term but we are bearish long term. We bullish cattle heading into Q4 2019 and Q1 2020
The Cattle on Feed report was bullish on Friday. Feeders are now in a bullish uptrend while Fats are reversing and trying to fill the gap from the Tyson fire. Soybeans lead the CBOT higher due to improving trade talks between the US and China
From planting to harvest, every year brings a collection of unique challenges. Extreme weather and tariffs are two that have recently played leading roles in the grain marketing plans of producers across the United States. If nothing else, these fundamental market drivers have emphasized the importance of taking a measured approach to battling the unknown.
The report was bullish for HRW wheat (KC). Russian wheat production was cut, US HRW exports were increased, and feed use was increased. Year-over-year HRW stocks are projected to be 15% lower. KC wheat finished 20 higher today and lead all markets.
The next couple of weeks makes or break corn. Soybeans could add acres but at current prices with no China deal it is hard to make that case. I think worst case scenarios are CN goes to $3.20, CZ $3.40, SN $7.50, SX, $7.80 WN, $4.00 and KWN $3.60. Maybe $7 soybeans discourages South American planting? Corn has a real chance to rally this spring/summer but it is all about US acres and yield. It will not be a demand story. Farmers need to sell the deferred contracts on rallies and use the new price ranges to sell straddles. The rest of this year is going to be all about Maximizing Opportunity in a Low Priced Environment. I’ll be holding a webinar on that topic soon and updating you about it next week