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Farm Policy (Univ of IL) is estimating ethanol production will be down about 750mm gallons for March, April, and May. That is about 250mm bushel of corn lost from decreases in ethanol demand. There will probably be more demand lost in June/July/Aug to round out the marketing year. Right now we could be looking at 350mm to 400mm bushels of lost demand for 2019-2020 corn. The big concern is those bushels go right back into the ending stocks on the balance sheet.
The US Federal Reserve has pledged to buy assets with no limits. This is similar to the Fed support during the subprime crisis
The US and China have come to an agreement in principal over Phase One of the trade deal. The US and China are expected to sign in early January
The markets are higher today as more snow is forecast in the central US and that will further delay corn harvest. Farmer sales also tend to slow down during the week of Thanksgiving and that can be supportive too. Andy Daniels, the founder of Daniels Trading, has an opinion about rice today
The markets are higher today as more snow is forecast in the central US and that will further delay corn harvest. Farmer sales also tend to slow down during the week of Thanksgiving and that can be supportive too. Andy Daniels, the founder of Daniels Trading, has an opinion about rice today
The markets are higher today as more snow is forecast in the central US and that will further delay corn harvest. Farmer sales also tend to slow down during the week of Thanksgiving and that can be supportive too. Andy Daniels, the founder of Daniels Trading, has an opinion about rice today
Export sales were above the average estimates and towards the top of the ranges. US corn is well priced at these levels as are soybeans. Corn is competitive with the Black Sea and South America will be out of the export game for the next few months. US Soybeans are now about 30 cents under Brazil for December and 10 under for January. Support for Jan Soybean is $9.00 and then $8.90. A break below $8.90 could cause the funds to go from net long to net short. I personally don’t see the funds getting net short unless the Phase One trade deal completely falls apart.
The USDA made small changes to the corn and soybeans supply and demand tables. Corn yields came down to 167.0 from 168.4. Bulls were hoping form more than a 1.4 bpa decrease.
CBOT markets chopped in range today on low volume. Pork exports were the highest of the marketing year. With China’s need for pork and a potential Phase One trade deal on the horizon, this could be just the start for strong pork export demand
The US and China will resume high level trade talks next week. We are bullish grains and oilseeds short term but we are bearish long term. We bullish cattle heading into Q4 2019 and Q1 2020