From planting to harvest, every year brings a collection of unique challenges. Extreme weather and tariffs are two that have recently played leading roles in the grain marketing plans of producers across the United States. If nothing else, these fundamental market drivers have emphasized the importance of taking a measured approach to battling the unknown.
The report was bullish for HRW wheat (KC). Russian wheat production was cut, US HRW exports were increased, and feed use was increased. Year-over-year HRW stocks are projected to be 15% lower. KC wheat finished 20 higher today and lead all markets.
The next couple of weeks makes or break corn. Soybeans could add acres but at current prices with no China deal it is hard to make that case. I think worst case scenarios are CN goes to $3.20, CZ $3.40, SN $7.50, SX, $7.80 WN, $4.00 and KWN $3.60. Maybe $7 soybeans discourages South American planting? Corn has a real chance to rally this spring/summer but it is all about US acres and yield. It will not be a demand story. Farmers need to sell the deferred contracts on rallies and use the new price ranges to sell straddles. The rest of this year is going to be all about Maximizing Opportunity in a Low Priced Environment. I’ll be holding a webinar on that topic soon and updating you about it next week