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El Nino
Commodities Resilient to Trade Threats Despite Vulnerability to Potential Volatility
The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically,Given the ongoing gains in US equities, unrelenting strength in crude oil prices, and a lack of sustained concern over the possible derailment of the global economy by US/China trade salvos, one gets the sense that…
Pressure on Physical Commodities Possible in the Week Ahead
All things considered, financial markets weathered the latest US interest rate hike well, even with predictions for rate hikes all the way out into 2020. While the mostly hawkish Fed dialogue didn’t lend much support to the dollar, surprisingly dovish rate guidance from…
US Economic Outlook Pendulum Swinging Towards Less Growth
For most of 2017, equity market gains went hand-in-hand with expectations for improving commodity demand.
Plenty of Supportive Forces for the US Economy
The steep drop in many commodity market sectors could be nearing an end as a little less volatility in financial markets, a more positive tilt to the Chinese and Indian economies and less safe-haven investing could leave the US economy in good shape going forward.
Increased Odds of Growth in the US and Abroad
Just when it appeared that the commodity markets were overbought and poised to correct, the US Fed was found to be on-hold “to at least June.”
Global Markets May Have a Brighter Outlook
An improvement in US and European manufacturing activity as well as news that the “official” Chinese PMI number climbed back into expansion territory for the first time in 8 months bodes well for a more sustainable global recovery effort.
Large Grain Supply May Not Be Enough!
Several years ago, the amount of food consumed inside the home was surpassed by what was consumed outside of the home.
Sentiment Was Overly Negative Going into the 2016 Equity Market Lows
Last week we suggested that the “long dark shadow” of deflation was starting to fade, and given the impressive rally off the February low through the end of the month, we would suggest that sentiment was overly negative going into the 2016 equity market lows, as the global swoon was mostly about disappointing forward momentum and not some major, difficult-to-solve obstacle.
Current Sentiment in Favor of the Bear Camp
We continue to think that the current crisis lacks a pedigree, and industry leader Jamie Dimon (CEO of JP Morgan) would seem to concur, given that in the wake of stock declines he purchased shares of his company.