I am working from home while IL has a Stay at Home order in effect until April 30. My office cell is 312-651-4621. My office phone 312-706-7610 will roll over to my cell phone if you call my trade desk. This week we talk the April WASDE, what to look for in the May WASDE, and the latest from OPEC and crude oil production cuts. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
The April WASDE was bearish against expectations but the market had been looking for higher grain and oilseed stocks across the board. Looks a lot like “sell the rumor, buy the fact” to me.
New Crop looks bad. We estimate we lose another 150mm in demand from low energy prices in the 2020-21 marketing year. With 97 million acres and a trend line yield we see ending stocks blowing out to 3.4 billion. This puts cash prices and harvest lows under $3.
Farm Policy (Univ of IL) is estimating ethanol production will be down about 750mm gallons for March, April, and May. That is about 250mm bushel of corn lost from decreases in ethanol demand. There will probably be more demand lost in June/July/Aug to round out the marketing year. Right now we could be looking at 350mm to 400mm bushels of lost demand for 2019-2020 corn. The big concern is those bushels go right back into the ending stocks on the balance sheet.
I am working from home while IL has a Stay at Home order in effect. My office cell is 312-651-4621. My office phone 312-706-7610 will roll over to my cell phone if you call my trade desk. This week we talk about the steps that took place so a potential bottom could be made. I think the market is now heading into a period of wide ranging consolidation. We talk about what to look for and why in the coming weeks for stocks, energy, livestock and grains. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
The US Federal Reserve has pledged to buy assets with no limits. This is similar to the Fed support during the subprime crisis
I’m working from home as the country goes into lockdown. My office cell is 312-651-4621. My office phone 312-706-7610 will roll over to my cell phone if you call my trade desk. This week we talk about the macro markets and how the US Federal Reserve, Treasury, Congress, and Administration will be dealing with the coronavirus crisis going forward. We talk about how interest rates and treasuries are stabilizing (step #1 in any recovery). We then go into what needs to happen for stocks and energy to stabilize. Once that happens all the markets can start to recover. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
To say things have been busy since Sunday night would be a gross understatement. In this podcast we go over what to looks for going in the coming weeks with respect to coronavirus, the economic implications, government stimulus,and what markets to watch that signal a recovery/reversal. There are certain markets we need to see stabilize before a recovery can happen. We also need to see the rate of new coronavirus cases start to trend down (and not up), which we may not see for at least a couple of weeks.
We go over the economic impact of coronavirus, the fed interest rate cut, and why the markets trader higher when Biden started winning on Super Tuesday.
Coronavirus continues to pressure the markets lower. We are looking at the energy markets for signs of a bottom.