Evidence over the last month suggests to us that the BREXIT has not had as negative an impact as was expected.
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World Economy Remains at a Critical Junction
While the jury remains out on the direction of the US economy, comments from the Fed recently calling for higher inflation targets and more action to stimulate growth probably spark two lines of reasoning.
World Economic Condition is Disappointing but Not Beyond Resurrection
Either the payrolls report confirmed that a recovery remains in place in the US, or payrolls are indeed a lagging indicator.
The Fed Passed on Hiking Rates; Commodity Markets Not Impressed
The Fed passed on hiking rates, but the lift to most commodity markets off that news was not very impressive, and this suggests that the path of least resistance is likely to remain down.
Potential For Negative Headlines Ahead
While there might be flare ups off the eventual splitting of the UK from the EU, both parties seem to understand it is in their best interest to minimize the headwinds to economic growth.
The Level of Big-Picture Macroeconomic Uncertainty Is On the Decline
Death and Pestilence off of Brexit has failed to surface so far!
Starting To See a Deteriorating Forward View
Recent talk of fresh easing from the BOJ and BOE seems to have been largely discounted as ineffective, and that has prompted a revival of safe haven interest in gold and US Treasuries.
Brexit Injected Volatility into Global Markets
The “unexpected” happened with the UK referendum to leave the EU.
How Will Commodities in the Summer of 2016 Be Defined?
Since the March lows, several physical commodities have forged rallies that few expected, and with even fewer anticipating the magnitude of those rallies.
Commodity Markets Facing Fundamental Junctions Directly Ahead
The USDA report follows a May report that shifted the 2016/17 crop outlook from definitively bearish to moderately less bearish.