Consumer spending in the US grew at a 0.3% rate in the first quarter, the smallest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009.
China
Global Recovery Fighting a Number of Headwinds
We hope that the Fed isn’t wrong about the recovery continuing, and we hope that the weak US data is a temporary trend and that the US economy is merely taking a pause.
US Economic Prospects Disappoint, International Economic Conditions Improve
The US data has been patently discouraging; the Trump administration continues to squander political capital; and the prospect for pro-growth policy initiatives continue to be pushed further and further into the future.
The Environment for Physical Commodities Could Be Negative in the Coming Weeks
While the inevitable happened in the March FOMC meeting, the reaction in the dollar was very surprising and was modestly supportive to a number of commodities.
Possibility of Three Rate Hikes in 2017?
It would appear that the markets are locked and loaded for a March 15th rate hike, with some players suggesting an increase in probability that there will be three hikes this year.
US Economic Data Improving While Inflation and Growth in Euro Zone
Recent US economic data has shown some signs of improvement, with industrial production, housing starts and jobless claims all indicating positive progression.
The US Fed Moved to Hike Interest Rates
Not surprisingly, the US Fed moved to hike interest rates last week, but the markets were somewhat surprised by the hint of three possible rate hikes in 2017.
Outlook for the Global Economy and Commodity Markets Continues to Improve
The outlook for the global economy and commodity markets in general continues to improve, but some might fret over the looming FOMC rate decision, while others might be concerned over the prospect of a firming dollar in the event the Fed does make a move to hike rates.
Evidence of a Recovery Unfolding in Europe and China
As we mentioned several weeks ago, the steady rise in interest rates is soon to become an issue for a number of markets.
Signs of Improving Global Economy? Or Anticipating US Rate Hike?
We are not sure if the signals being thrown by Treasuries this week are a sign of a longer term change or if we are “putting the cart before the horse.”