Global markets finished an eventful trading week last week with a mildly negative tone, as signs of progress in US/China trade discussions were followed by negative comments late last week that indicated both sides remained far apart. But there were some signs that…
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The North Korean situation flared up again with fresh threats from their leader, and while the markets have taken these types of threats in stride before, there will be some anxiety that affects risk sentiment.
It could be a very volatile week ahead as the market deals with factors that could slow US economic growth in the short term.
The Fed symposium in Jackson Hole failed to offer any distinct direction on the state of the US economy, but recent Fed commentary suggested that a government shutdown off the budget ceiling battle and the possible effects from Hurricane Harvey could impact policy decisions next month.
Commodity markets appear to have put in a significant low on June 22nd, right into the crude oil low and also in line with the first day of summer.
While the markets always present a wide range of potentially impactful issues, the current list seems to be unusually broad.
Consumer spending in the US grew at a 0.3% rate in the first quarter, the smallest increase since the fourth quarter of 2009.
We hope that the Fed isn’t wrong about the recovery continuing, and we hope that the weak US data is a temporary trend and that the US economy is merely taking a pause.
The US data has been patently discouraging; the Trump administration continues to squander political capital; and the prospect for pro-growth policy initiatives continue to be pushed further and further into the future.