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Will Washington Gridlock Signal Deflation? Commodity Demand and Global Fundamentals Send Mixed Signals
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Continued Global Uncertainty Creates Eventful Trading in Commodity Markets
Global markets finished an eventful trading week last week with a mildly negative tone, as signs of progress in US/China trade discussions were followed by negative comments late last week that indicated both sides remained far apart. But there were some signs that…
US Stock Market Climbs as Global Economic Threats are Discounted
The US stock market continues to climb “a wall of worry,” as less than stellar US economic data, ongoing US/China trade tensions, signs of a building global currency problem, and expectations of a US interest rate hike this month are being discounted…
Will Trade Tensions Bring Gains in US Treasuries or Negative Impact on Commodities?
The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically, and the potential for a major risk-off event is growing. Given that US/China trade tensions are escalating and given China’s outsized impact on physical commodities, the threat against…
Growing Potential for Major Risk-Off Event, Gasoline Prices Most Vulnerable
The number of global geopolitical/economic flashpoints has expanded dramatically, and the potential for a major risk-off event is growing. Given that US/China trade tensions are escalating and given China’s outsized impact on physical commodities, the threat against…
Is Macroeconomic Volatility to Reach Crescendo? Renewed Pressure on Commodities Still Possible
We would suggest that risk on/risk off big picture macroeconomic volatility in commodities is set to reach a crescendo despite the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Our view is that the looming July 6th tariff implementation deadline will…
Bearish Commodity Headline Flow Approaching its Peak? High-Volatility Bottoms Possible in Coming Weeks
As of this writing, the bearish physical commodity headline flow has the feel of an approaching peak. Very good growing conditions in the US, concerns over an internet tax, the recent US rate hike, an 11-month high in the dollar, sentiment injury, tension over immigration, an explosion in global tariff threats, and a slight loosening of world oil production restraint leave physical commodities…
Strong Dollar to Restrain Some Commodities, Plus Expanded Market Volatility in Sight
The most recent Federal Reserve meeting was categorized as dovish, with the Fed expected to allow further growth and minor gains in inflation before they move away from a balanced view on rates. Despite this, the equity markets and sentiment as a whole failed to embrace the positives from the meeting. US equities also failed to sustain upside action following a lot of very bullish fundamental news from…
Global Markets Retain Positive Risk Tone Amid Trade, USDA News
After an eventful trading week last week, global markets are holding onto a positive risk tone. President Trump formally announced steel and aluminum tariffs, but there were exceptions for Canada and Mexico that softened its impact on risk appetites. There has been pushback from Capitol Hill, the business sector and major central banks that could keep trade tensions subdued.